I believe the E. Timor situation promises more immediate tragedy
than Dagestan. I estimate very significant casualties and virtually no effective intervention.
It is a very ugly situation, and a exceedingly difficult one for interventionists. I've thought from the beginning that referendum was poorly timed and excessively defined - independent or not, all or nothing - and was likely to result in civil war regardless of the outcome. I would much rather have seen a commitment to a fixed period of autonomy, to be concluded with a referendum. Might not have helped at all, though.
Part of the problem is that back in the early stages of this conflict the Indonesian government urged non-Timorese to settle in Timor, trying o build a semi-indigenous pro-Indonesian constituency. Now we have second and third generation settlers with nowhere else to go, with a pro-Indonesian record known to all in the community and a very bleak future in an independent Timor. This group will violently resist any move toward independence. They are a minority, but they organized and well armed. They are certainly a major threat to the personal security of pro-independence leaders.
This group also has strong sympathy and connections with the Indonsiam military, making it very difficult for the Indonesian military to effectively police the area. The Indonesian army is being forced to carry out a role it perceives as being imposed on it by foreigners, which it percieves as damaging to Indonesia as a whole. This is a very, very, sensitive combination; there is a real possibility that efforts by the Indonesian government to conform to foreign expectations in Timor could lead to a coup d'etat. This would be catasrophic for both Indonesia and East Timor.
Military intervention will be very difficult, both logistically and politically. There is no convenient multilateral Aegis; ASEAN is not likely to accept deployment of foreign troops in anything but an external aggression. The activities of hedge funds in the recent Asian Crisis produced a great deal of popular resentment, whether justified or not is another story, but it exists. Any effort to deploy troops would trot all of these specters out of the closet, and there would be real resistance. All supply lines pass through Indonesian territory; the operation would have to be based in Australia.
Air power would be ineffective, no targets. Unless we pull a Bosnia and start bombing military targets in Jakarta to force a withdrawal from Timor....
My guess is that direct intervention would lead to a military coup in Jakarta, a forced reoccupation of Timor, and a major slaughter that no outside power is in a position to halt, without unilateral action in defiance of numerous treaties and agreements.
In short, I think it's a big f*cking mess with no good ways out. I think whoever thought up that referendum needs a well-padded cell. I think we shouldn't start what we can't finish. |
