Bill. 6 consecutive posts with no useful information. Bill, simply put you hope the AMD will get their act together, in a manner that they have never done before, with the following backdrop:
1) They have beaucoup debt to service (and it will grow as they lose still more money in the few quarters).
2) They have to bring up two new processes in Dresden (.18 and copper) quickly in order to stop the bleeding.
3) They have managed the Athlon intro, to be kind, hideously.
4) Their yield history is far worse than your benevolent characterization.
5) They are hurling key executives (or the key executives have jumped) off the roof with alarming frequency.
6) They have won a place in the Forbes annual "worst Board of Directors" ranking two years running (Threepeat coming?)
7) Boxmakers seem to have long memories about past disappointments.
On the positive side: Flash sales great. The Athlon is a solid design (though currently on an overweight die size that will make volume production at .25 problematical). Intel bungled the coppermine release, chip set development and production and possibly Rambus issue.
Some will see the simultaneous failures of the big two as signs of equivalence of the two or even worse, as Intel is supposed to execute flawlessly.
As I see it, AMD is a speculative investment, suitable for those who like long odds. Big risk. Big rewards if they pull it off. A stone cold sober evaluation of their odds is impossible to come by as the world seems divided into a love/hate relationship towards AMD.
My guess is that the words that will be heard a lot at the next AMD quarterly meeting (and they should be familiar to AMD fans) are "unanticipated", "return to profitability in Y2K", "extremely competitive environment" and "enourmous potential". ASP talk will focus on the future, not the recent past.
It should go over well with Wall Street because Jerry is a superb showman and he has had a lot of experience with disappointing quarters. Wall Street wants to hear about the future and Jerry wants to talk much more about the future than the past. My WAG is that there will be another $120 million loss (startup costs for Dresden chewing into the good Flash results and ASPs that are dismal).
Good luck with your investments,
Burt |
