UPultra,
I guess it depends on what Gemini acreage you are talking about. The original AOW Gemini acreage's western border was only about a mile and a half east of Ultra's most prolific well, the Mesa 15-8 (if my info is correct). AOW referred to Gemini as being in the Mesa tract.
Originally, AOW was to get 50% of Ultra's 85% interest in the following Gemini acreage:
In Twp. 32N 108W----
all of Sec.'s 4,5,6,7,8,9,16,17,18,19,20,21
In Twp. 32N 109W----
all of Sec.'s 1, 2, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 23, 24
and lots 1, 2, 3, SE/4NW/4SE/4, NE/4SW/4 and S/2NE/4 of Sec. 3
and lots 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13 of Sec. 4
and E/2 of Sec. 15
and SE/4 of Sec. 21
and S/2 of Sec. 22
for a total of 14,920 gross acres more or less.
On 80 acre spacing this acreage provided space for up to 90 wells.
This info is on page 17 of the 19-page "Project Appraisal" done by GIlbert Laustsen Jung Associates, dated Sept 17, 1997, which I downloaded from the AOW website.
I'm not sure what AOW's Gemini interests are now, because some of the negotiated revisions seem to be in dispute.
Also the maximum number of potential wells that could be drilled might be revised upward if directional drilling from common platforms is utilized and permits granted accordingly.
Where the gas resevoirs actually lie, we peons have no way of even guessing. If extensive resevoirs underlie what in the end is determined to be AOW's Gemini acreage, there still is the question of how prolific the wells tapping those resevoirs would be and for how long. All are, at this stage, unknowns. POSSIBILITIES could be rather large, especially if it is found that Gemini is similarly prolific to the core Mesa area slightly to the west and northwest of Gemini.
Of course, litigants are going to ask for much more than they realistically hope to get. However, it doesn't seem to me to be inconceivable that an outcome of the suit could possibly be VERY damaging to UP.
You are welcome to continue to paint rosy scenarios for UP. But I would like to see a lot of hard facts as the basis for them. The fact that some people are buying UP at ever higher prices doesn't mean much, especially if the buyers are not aware of what's in the suit or suits, or perhaps even aware that there is a suit against UP.
Besides, mutual fund managers are not generally known for being particularly savvy. 90% of them don't even match the SP 500 in any given year.
I think it would be wise not to be too bullish on UP right at this juncture. |
