thread,
More great news for Intel and AMD:
50% growth for yr 2000 after 60% growth in 99.
Further warnings sounded on flash supplies
By Craig Matsumoto
EE Times
(09/09/99, 11:39 a.m. EDT)
SANTA CLARA, Calif. ? Flash-memory devices are essentially sold out for the year, thanks to the overall semiconductor industry recovery and to a widening base of applications that will push flash to nearly a $6 billion market by 2000, according to analyst Alan Niebel of Semico Research Corp. (Phoenix).
Flash manufacturers at present are seeing lead times as long as 26 weeks, said Niebel, who presented his findings at Semico's annual forecast session here. "Most of the suppliers are sold out for the rest of the year," he said. "Almost everybody who is producing flash is making money at it, which wasn't the case a couple of years ago."
Some manufacturers saw the push for supply coming. Earlier this year, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. began telling some of its flash memory customers to renegotiate their contracts in anticipation of an end to the industry's lengthy down cycle. Customers "laughed" at the idea ? one even accused AMD and Intel Corp. of conspiring to raise prices ? but are now having to scramble to secure flash parts, said Odilio Vargas, strategic marketing manager for AMD's non-volatile memory division.
Capacity for flash is stretched more than for other memories because of the increasing uses of flash, Niebel said.
The flash market will continue to blossom during the next few years. Flash revenues should reach $4 billion this year and climb to $5.9 billion in 2000, Niebel said. The figures represent a 60 percent growth rate this year and another 48 percent of growth next year.
Sales of flash memory units will be up as well, from 1.175 billion this year to 1.526 billion in 2000, ultimately climbing to 2.915 billion in 2003, Niebel said.
Average selling prices for flash will be on the rise as well, driven by the need for higher densities. In estimates that he called conservative, Niebel projected an average price for flash of $3.41 this year and $3.88 in 2000.
Flash is beginning to replace hard drives in some application areas, but its primary applications continue to be cellular phones and PC BIOS, Niebel said. "You also see networking ? communications are large consumers of flash," he said.
The popularity of flash memory is particularly telling in its use among new consumer devices, such MP3-format music players, 30 or so of which Niebel expects to see on the market this Christmas.
With flash use becoming so widespread, and prices for the parts being relatively stable, some DRAM makers are retooling their fabs to build more flash. But Niebel doesn't expect the flash market to get overwhelmed with excess capacity and plummeting prices. "DRAM is also increasing its ASPs, so it won't be too strong," he said |
