Chuck & thread -- a long term hedge strategy for AMD:
I continue to be intrigued by the possibility of an Apple/AMD collusion, especially for the long term. Why? Intel cannot compete in the Apple CPU market because
1)they have no presence now
2)Intel would be prohibited from using their x86 (or future IA-64) profits from subsidizing competition with Apple/AMD
3)At (currently) less than 10% of the computer market, its too small a fish for Intel to go after.
That said, here's how the AMD/Apple combo would work.
1. AMD continues developing and selling its 7th generation Athlon for at least 2 years
2. The K8 is modified by whatever needed to get Apple's committment. For example, take x86 (IA32), add 64 bit registers and addressing, add AltiVec SIMD (better than 3DNow or SSE), lots of registers. Such a CPU could be ready sometime in 2001, depending on how much "IA-Apple" differs from AMD's current design for the K8.
3. If I were Apple, I wouldn't stray too far from IA32. This would allow them to port their OS to both IA-Apple and IA32 simultaneously.
4. Motorola might want to trade its PowerPC division + a few hundred million $ to AMD to get AMD's flash business.
Why would this be good for AMD?
1. Less competition in Apple's market segment. Near 100% of a 10% market segment, with room to grow the segment. AMD would continue to compete in the high-end x86 segment with the Athlon.
2. If Apple ports OS to IA32, they would do it in a way that favors AMD, e.g., by optimizing QuickDraw etc. for 3DNow. If they acquired AMD, they would certainly want to do this to keep their "chip division" (AMD) busy.
3. $$$ provided by Apple and Motorola
What about consumers?
1. It would give them a real alternative to Microsoft
2. Without something like this, Apple/Motorola might slowly disappear
Why would this be good for Apple?
1. Better performance - except for AltiVec, the Athlon 650 beats the PPC4-500 which isn't even out yet, in both FP and Integer (recent SPEC results).
2. Higher MHz - MHz sells
3. Porting OS gives Apple significant software revenues
4. Motorola charges a lot of money for its chips --Apple saves money especially if Apple acquires AMD.
Comments? BTW, what about SUN+AMD?
Petz |
