I've been thinking on this one, and I'm going to try something I rarely do, which is trying to explain why I think what I do. I hope I don't botch it.
First, I would really love to see an independent and peaceful East Timor. Really. I've been a Falintil sympathizer for a long time, which is why I know their name.
But the timing on this move is really, really, dumb. Big mistake.
Look at what we have here:
We have a new civilian government, with the uncertain favor of a politically very active army, which has effectively ruled the country since independence. The civilian government, in my guess, would just as soon drop Timor on the world community and walk away. It is producing nothing, the occupation is expensive, the island is economically insignificant. Then We have the army, looking over the shoulders of the civilians. The army is bruised a little. Their leader was forced out, the economy they built their way is in ruins, their precious public esteem is battered.
The army is looking for an issue on which to reassert itself. They want it all back.
We have to realize that backing down before a pink is a huge, huge, hot button for Indonesians, and not just the ones in the army. it is never wise to force an avoidable head-to-head confrontation with an Indonesian, even when - especially when - you're right. Wait for the right moment and make a face-saving compromise that makes progress toward a goal, and you go places. Go head-to-head and it gets uglier than it has to.
If it gets ugly, who suffers the most? The people we are trying to help.
Now look at a larger picture. Indonesia is not Kosovo or Rwanda or the Sudan. The US economy needs an Asian recovery, we can't carry this ball forever. Every drop of oil consumed by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan passes through Indonesia. Who are we expecting to drive this Asian recovery. We are talking of the 4th most populous country in the world, with - and lets not discount this - the full support of ASEAN. My guess is that if you put intervention by extraregional forces on an ASEAN table you'd would get pretty damned close to a unanimous no.
Diplomatic nightmare. No possibility for multilateral justification.
If we engineer the separation of East Timor, we will be forced to subsidize the new country economically for an indefinite period.
Indonesia is in economic crisis at the moment, and the regions are not getting much out of Jakarta. If the people in Aceh and Irian Jaya look over and see foreign aid pouring into a newly independent East Timor, what message do they get? How many of these do we want to deal with? Does a Balkanized Indonesia serve anybody's interests?
There are 800,000 people in East Timor.
I am not trying to say that we should sit back and watch the Indonesians slaughter the Timorese because Indonesia is strategically important. I'm saying that somewhere along the line on our side there is going to be a risk/benefit calculation. More important, I'm saying that the Indonesian Generals know this. They are not stupid. They are invested on the New York exchanges; you may own the same mutual funds. They read our websites. They know our priorities. The last thing in the world we need is a major flareup in Asia right now, and they know it.
By holding this referendum now we are forcing this issue to a flareup point at a moment when our opponent is holding his strongest cards.
One of the few positive consequences of the Asian crisis was a real political shift in Indonesia. I'm not saying it's been transformed overnight, but Suharto is out. Habibie is a Suharto man, but he's not a former general. They held a functional election. The government party didn't win, and the army stayed in the barracks. Economic reform is only being talked about, but at least it's being talked about seriously. It is an issue on the political table, which it never was before.
Progress. Messy progress, but mess is an almost inevitable sidekick to progress, and it should be remembered that faster "progress" often makes a bigger mess, and ends up in a place a long way from what was originally intended.
Now we toss it all back to the army because we had to have a referendum RIGHT NOW!!.
If we really give a shit about the Timorese, we should forget about absolute and immediate solutions, because the only one available is a really ugly one. It's an old Indonesian game called "let's all kill each other".
We should be putting all our diplomatic weight behind an immediate ceasefire. The conditions should be that Falintil acknowledges that full and immediate independence is not an option and that the Republic of Indonesia acknowledges that East Timor has a legitimate historical claim to Independence (careful wording here to avoid encouraging the others), and that it is willing to discuss the terms of a transition to independence with abundant foreign assistance for all. It should be clear that all major leaders involved will make a lot of money in the process, honor be damned, if we can discreetly pay them not to start a war, it's worth it. Say a million each, all around the table? What does a cruise missile cost?
Then we pump in some money and buy some time, construct a process, hold some talks, let everyone get his face on TV, anything required to keep the matter on "talk" rather then on "shoot".
In the meantime we should do what we should have done in the first place, which is everything possible to get the Indonesian economy on its feet and the civilian government working. Not instantly; look for significant recovery with continued political stability in 3 years, maybe a little better in 5. This would be good for the Indonesians, good for us - they buy shit from us, and there are lots of them - and most of all good for the Timorese.
That would have been the time to hold a referendum.
When people are down to their last cup of bigas and the money is worth dirt, and the generals come out and scream about how the civilians who brought you misery have now brought you shame, they are licking the boots of the Nekolim and carving up the country, what are people likely to say?
When there is a chicken in every pot, and people are used to saying what they think and reading what they like, and the generals come out to rant about licking the boots of the Nekolim, what are people likely to say?
An explanatory dialogue:
American: This is disgusting, illegal, immoral, and wrong; you have no claim to this place, you must turn it over to us and we will turn it over to them, and then we will give them money and they will do whatever we tell them to do.
Indonesian: Not so many years ago, when you were assembling your own country, you did all the same things, and it was completely acceptable then. Even fewer years ago you arrogant and bestial westerners took over whole countries, got fat off their labor and resources, and killed anyone who asked you to leave. Where do you get off telling us how to put our country together?
American: Well, we don't do that anymore, and if we do we will use nice accurate cruise missiles that never ever hit anything but the things we want to hit, not nasty mobs of men with knives.
Indonesian: You don't do those things here any more because we threw your white asses out. (I am translating loosely, a cultured Javanese would find an exquisitely polite way of saying "f*ck you".)
American: …and we don't think you should do these things anymore.
Indonesian: We didn't think the Dutch should have stolen our country. They did it anyway.
American: And if you don't stop it we are going to send a UN peacekeeping force and make you stop it.
Indonesian: OK, take it to the UN. Malaysia is on the Security Council, and they're with us. China has a Security Council veto. So does Russia. Look at all those Tibetans and Chechnyans and all those people jbe knows about (ok, he's a Feelies Indonesian) just raring to go, are the Russians and the Chinese boys going to let a vote in favor of intervention in a secession case go through? If you want to take it to the General Assembly, go for it. No UN peacekeeping force today, I think.
American: Oh, oh, yes, well what about that nice regional outfit you had out there, they still do what we tell them to, right? We were always nice to them, weren't we….?
Indonesian: I think they call it ASEAN. Ask them how they feel about it.
American: Well, we'll do it ourselves. We will, we promise, we have lots and lots of cruise missiles, and we will make you go away and stop being bad to those people.
The Indonesian pauses briefly, reviews the factors enumerated above, and thinks:
"How far will they really be willing to go???"
In short, I think the people who pushed this election through at this time may very easily end up being responsible for the nastiest stuff that has ever hit an island with a pretty nasty history. It won't be their fault, of course. Blame it on the immoral regime in Jakarta and the "great powers" that let them get away with it. This distinction will be a great relief to the Timorese.
We should have been talking about "immediate ceasefire and the institution of immediate talks to resolve the issue of whether or not independence ought to be discussed. All parties to the talks should have been placed on large monthly retainers, insuring that the talks would go on at least a decade. If they get rich enough that they start arguing, let them break off, rattle some sabers, and go for another round of talks.
Meanwhile, get some people in there and build a little infrastructure, build a school or two and produce the people that will be needed to make an independent Timor work.
End of rant. I don't dare read it.
I bet Nihil calls me a coward.
Larry Sherwood will go nuts; I'll have to send him a link.
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