<Sept 23, 1997 at the peak of the last pricing cycle for crude oil, crude oil closed at $23.15/bbl for wti intermediate...>
re: Doug's comments:
<<BUT THE BIG STORY IS.....CRUDE PRICES! Gang! Today we closed at $23.25/bbl for wti intermediate. Not one news wire tonight has picked up the significance! Well on Sept 23, 1997 at the peak of the last pricing cycle for crude oil, crude oil closed at $23.15/bbl for wti intermediate...>>
Amen. The Story is that there are all ready a few analysts who are predicting significantly higher upside to this Oilpatch Expansion that our prior peak in the fall of 1997. The reasons are 2-fold. Stronger fundamentals for both Crude & Nat Gas demand - OPEC potentially triggering a speculative bubble due to 'supply/production' management; and most importantly - the profitability & earnings leverage of the Oilpatch companies due to the M&A activity, cost reductions and the technological advances made in the last few years.
... I think that we will enter a new era of Crude Price management - the "Price Band" philosophy is a "when" and not an "if" factor for OPEC. OPEC has a new mindset. They saw God, Allah, Buddah & all other forms of the allmighty; during the crash to $8 Oil. Never, ever again will they allow these huge swings. Price Bands - but, being tied as well to supply;willwork - and will potentially be the catalyst to really smooth the edges off of the cyclical nature of the Energy Companies. I see a window of opportunity where select Energy Companies will be spoken about with terms as glowing as we see in the tech sector presently. If "Price Bands" can be successfully instituted - the financial efficencies & leverage that some Energy companies will have - will make this an explosive growth sector for some time to come. Perhaps an entire new era in the Oilpatch. No more Boom & Bust... only time will tell. But, I think that both OPEC and the Oil Majors have discovered that perhaps they just may be able to control their own destiny to a greater degree than ever thought.
Some of our leading companies like SLB BHI HAL - are potentially in a tremendous growth cycle. Also; a substantial factor in changing market sentiment here is that on every investment show, in every article and on the covers of most financial magazines & newspapers - is talk of OIL in relation to the inflationary pressures its price rise here is causing. OIL & Inflation are on the tips of every tongue in the Financial World.
Anyone else notice - the "sustainability" issue appears to be disappearing of late ? All I hear is higher Oil Prices, Inflation, OPEC cuts, higher gas prices, Nat Gas Power Generation replacing Nuclear Power Plants, higher Winter heating bills, and now that crude has broken through the prior Oilpatch peak price of $23.15 - and with OPEC announcing continued cuts in just 5 days ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
Yes; Doug - I would agree, I do not anticipate doing much profit taking here... especially in E&P's with the Q3 releases being the "1st" quarter to finally show higher Crude & Gas prices being realized on a year-over year basis.
Yes indeed; $8 crude also guaranteed $25 Crude... whodathunkit !
Do I hear $30 crude ??? $25 by Oct, $27 by Xmas, $30 by Feb ?
Can you imagine a simultaneous market of $25-$30 crude and $3-$4 Nat Gas ???
Boom 2000 will turn into Oilpatch.Com |
