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Technology Stocks : PRI Automation (PRIA)
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (798)9/10/1999 7:35:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 1214
 
Highlights from SSB presentation yesterday...


Key Highlights

1. Breakeven expected in 1Q00 (Dec)
2. Still expect $40-50M in orders for September quarter
3. No change in guidance, comfortable with consensus estimate of ($0.18)
for Sept. qtr.
4. However, entire body language points to good upsides.
5. What is remarkable is that in spite of the record semiconductor
strength, the company is not seeing a major pull in of the 9-11 fabs on
its planning horizon. Is the industry becoming less cyclical ?? We
believe that the $1.5 billion sticker shock, the experience of
1995-1999 upturns/downturns and the imminent 300 mm transition may
explain the reticence with respect to new fab announcements.

Presentation Details

1. Revenue growth will be equally divided between new fabs and existing
fab expansions
2. Still experiencing strong growth in 200mm fabs. Company expects a
steady stream of older generation 200 mm and 150 mm fab upgrades.
3. Order visibility has improved to 2 quarters, which represents an
improvement over visibility 3 months ago
4. Won 5 out of 8 orders competed for in 1999
5. Japanese competitors won 1 order each
6. ILC Planner and Scheduler should exit beta from TSMC/LSI Logic by
early 2000
7. Japanese are undercutting prices to compete and no major change yet in
their strategy.
8. 300mm fabs should represent a $100M opportunity, equally divided $25M
between interbay, intrabay, tool automation, and software.
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