From a historical perspective, you are of course right, but a good number of the Indonesians that I have met (mostly. I admit, Javanese)do tend to see the matter in the simpler - if less accurate - terms in which I expressed it. The educational system pays a good deal of attention to the great Javanese empires of the past, and a good deal less to the fact that these had pretty much collapsed by the time the Europeans arrived. The intent is pretty clearly to get people to see Indonesia as the natural inheritor of the empires past; it has not been entirely effective, but it has made an impact.
I am less convinced than you that Indonesia, at least, is destined for inevitable collapse. I would say that major change is inevitable, but this may not entail a complete breakup. It will most likely be something nobody expects.
I think most Indonesians, while far from happy with the way in which the country has been run, appreciate the advantages of a large and regionally significant power - and even very poor Indonesians like to think of their country being on the world stage, which I assume is a residue from Sukarno's time - and are quite aware of the dangers and risks faced by a scattered cluster of weak and dependent states.
Many conflicting factors are in play, and it is very difficult to predict outcomes over any term with any certainty.
Could say a good deal more on the subject, may do so over the next few days.... |
