Don:
Nice response. I've been a lurker here, too. The bashing by the shorts makes this not such a pleasant bookmark but the ASTN's "story" is compelling and that's why I'm long. What I find interesting is this notion, promoted by the shorts, that this is a "zero-sum game" -- that it's a fight between the shorts and the longs and that any trend comes completely at the expense of the other.
No stock climbs to the sky without a correction or disappointment along the way. And some tank completely -- if their product fails or if the market was never there in the first place. Or if their management is stupid/corrupt, etc.
I don't see evidence of any of these things in ASTN and I see the promise of a major return long term. ASTN is part of a major trend in the securities industry and they appear to be executing their business plan with prudence. I don't see the "panic" that the shorts would like us to believe. It doesn't mean the shorts are completely wrong -- there certainly have been great opportunities for the shorts to make a nice turn...
I just don't have the mindset to pursue that approach. My best investments have been in buying great companies early and holding them for a long time. Some examples: WCOM (investment originally in MCI -- held for over 25 years... I'd hate to tell everyone here my cost basis), MSFT (purchased 100 shares in 1988 -- now 4,000 shares after all the splits), LSCC (purchased in 1990 with cost basis around $2 -- now $68).
Clearly, with each of these stocks, there were major opportunities to short and play the cycle/correction. It took some huge leaps of faith to stick with MCI when it fell to under $1/share in the late '70's when AT&T was trying to put it out of business, but those were additional buying opportunities. And you had to have confidence that Bill McGowan would realize his dream. I'm just not smart enough to play that short-term game... But in keeping a long term perspective and having the wisdom to stick with some great investments can lead to a successful outcome. Will ASTN emulate one of these? Is the ASTN management team the equivalent to McGowan? Beats the heck out of me (there are few managers of McGowan's caliber but I don't think that's a requirement for investment/business success) but I think it has the potential to be a very good investment. And I'll maintain my "long term" perspective to ride out the cycles that the shorts like to scream and fret about. The Auric's of this world aren't going to scare me out of a promising investment position. I'm sure he's been right many times, and I'm sure some of his targets have been terrible scams with bad management. I just don't think ASTN is one these. If I did, I wouldn't have made the commitment that I have. JMHO.
Have a good weekend.
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