<<So my new mantra for COMS is - DO SOMETHING! >>
Gary: One of your finest posts. I was literally LOL. I agree. There are many things COMS can do to kick-start its stock, probably including firing Eric B, unfair though that might be IMO.
As you know, you and I have a fundamental difference of opinion on COMS: you believe that COMS has screwed up in the past but is undervalued based on its potential; I believe that COMS has actually done quite well under the circumstances, that it is grossly undervalued, but that it is being unfairly compared against CSCO, one of the most successful stocks of all time.
You can legitimately point to COMS' stock chart to buttress your viewpoint. Quite candidly, it sucks. But what other network stock in the past 2 years has done well against CSCO? CS was truly mismanaged and is only moving because of takeover speculation. Not NN. Not BAY before it was taken over. Money was made in ASND before it was taken over by LU, but ASND lucked out when it swallowed Cascade, and without it, would IMO have been dust. Even FORE - before it was swallowed - was struggling badly, this despite having the best ATM technolgy by far.
At times, the stock market is a very inefficient pricing mechanism IMO. It has become - especially for the small and mid-caps - too short term oriented, and it can go way overboard in punishing a company for phenomena outside its control. Some tech companies are very cyclical - the semis and chip equipment companies come to mind - and the swings in their stock price have nothing to do with either their technical innovation or the competence of their executives.
One stock I'm currently very proud of - because its a 4 bagger for me in the last 5 months - is MRVC, a small dynamic networker. Until August l998, it had had 34 consecutive quarters of increasing earnings. Then heavy competition in its principle LAN product line (they became a "commodity") and a pre-announcement of a 10% drop in earnings (!!)knocked off two thirds of its market value in a single day. For 8 months, the stock languished around $6, well below book value. For 8 months the market ignored the potential of this company which was obvious to anyone who wanted to really look. Yesterday the stock of MRVC closed at 24 11/16.
I believe that eventually the market will wake up to the potential of COMS REGARDLESS of takeovers or takeover speculation. As a somewhat technical trader, in the past two years I've traded in and out of COMS. Now, like MA, I am starting to heavily re-position myself in it.
Like you say, there is little downside risk with a great deal of upside potential. The kind of investment I like in the "bubble"type market we are in.
Bruce |
