It's the time to downgrade INTC one more time for Intel failed again to AMD in technology racing with 2.4 billion R&D budget!
Most Intel investors on this thread have been buried their heads in sand and pad each other shoulders to comfort themselves that AMD K6 is a little faster than the fastest Intel CPUs. You pretend that AMD is not going to give serious thread to Intel Empire which is build on sands.
Now, you have to face the reality that Intel failed to AMD K6 in system performance after the fail to Cyrix MediaGX in technology innovations. It does not matter how faster AMD K6 is than which Intel Pentiums. As from April 2nd, 1997, AMD is the manufacturer of the fastest x86 CPU and Intel is degraded to a lower-level manufacturer. The inferior (slower) CPUs from the industry number 2 manufacturer could not priced in premium to support Intel fat margins. Why? By losing to the consequent technology racing, people in PC industry and end users lose their respects towards Intel and won't pay the ridiculous extra premiums for Intel chips unless Intel drops its CPU to meet her competitors' aggressive pricing. Intel earrings and profitability will be decreased quickly.
Intel and AMD have repeated in various announcements that there will be no CPU price war on their new generation of MPUs. Ask yourself the question if the CPU price war is avoidable? if you trust their
statements without doubt? With the continuous expansion on K6 capacity
and AMD aggressive marketing, how could Intel control the market demands/supplies as they did to keep the fat margin? In CPU businesses, everyone takes the same price strategy: PRICE THE CPUS AT THE LEVEL TO MOVE EVERY PIECE OUT OF SHELF! Intel has no plan to slow down her CPU productions. So, we have to guess that how deep the price cut Intel will take at the beginning of Q3 to move their chip out? Then, what would be happened to Intel Q2, Q3 and Q4 earrings? Does your brokerage house give you their estimates? Could you believe these numbers and sleep well at nights with money tied up in INTC?
Another danger towards Intel Empire and her earrings has been skipped by most of analysts intentionally or because of their stupid: AMD no more needs Intel x86 codes for their CPUs. With her K5 and K6 codes, AMD is free to compete head to head with Intel in chip design, system performance and price at her own wills. The result? Intel earrings and market share will erode along the way that AMD increase K6 outputs.
As said, If the coming Pentium II is slower than K6 at the same clock speed, you could say that INTEL FAILS AGAIN! There will be another challenge towards Intel and her technology: Cyrix M2. Could PII beat M2?
INTC is on the verge of meltdown to 30s by end of this year. Do yourself and others a big favor: PLEASE DON'T ENCOURAGE OTHER INVESTORS TO BUY INTC UNTIL IT CRASHES TO low 50s. The overpriced INTC is just another hype stock like MU, IOM, SHVA, etc.
Read at your own risks! |
