Zeev,be careful about twisting the facts to suit the theory.
Instead, you might want to consider modifying the theory to fit the facts.
This week you attempt to explain the rally as "short covering" by CC, although Rich Wolf presents quite a bit of "tape" information that contradicts that.
Also your newest interpretation flies in the face of logic:
- How could they significantly cover shorts in only a four day rally, after five weeks of unrelenting downward selling pressure?
- Why would they reverse direction when they needed to keep the conversion price dropping, so the number of shares in their arsenal keeps increasing?
- If the selling coalition were the major sellers, who sold the shares to them at such low prices when they began buying?
No, Zeev, the evidence is strongly against the theory that CC covered a lot of shorts in this rally.
The "death spiral" theory seems to keep ignoring the fact that there are deep pocket investors in Valence who will support the company, if they believe the fundamentals are improving. And all the huge insider buys over the last year show this to be the case. This is a major element that isn't factored in to the normal "death spiral" theory.
I offer you this quote from Leo Tolstoy:
"I know that most men, including those at ease with the problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept the truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.
Everyone speaks of changing the world, but no one wants to change himself."
Have a good weekend.
Paul |
