John,
Again, beginnings of a great thread. I will also be interested in seeing the survey. I think I will be quite interested in the 1990 data as much if not more the than 1987's. To me, 1987 was much more of an anomally. Very dramatic, but in such a short time. 1990 was much more a 'normal' bear.
It would have been interesting to have had this data back to 1972 to cover the bears in 1973-4 and 1981-2. At the start of the thread, you state " ... and remain out of the market for 12 weeks until that 55% bullish condition disappears".
Three comments. First, do you start the 12 week 'clock' going when the 55% appears or not until the survey goes back under the 55%? Second, if the market takes, say, up to 6 to 18 months to 'correct', while the 12 weeks will avoid some damage, you won't be avoiding most of it. Lastly, how well does the survey correspond to the SI survey? I find it interesting to see how much the SI respondents are so trend following that at the turning points, like most people, they are also wrong. Already there are more bears than bulls on some days, and the market may just be starting down. (At least for 6 more weeks or so, right, John? <g>)
Mat |
