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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: radames who wrote (25556)	9/11/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I have been watching EBAY also. My short term system gave a sell on it but this system did not do very well during the long drop it had either so I am unsure if I should trust it. It didn't do bad but the recommended trades were not extreme winners either. The nuts are hard to trade so I am just doing a look and see this go around to see how it does. Vitas - Great post but I would have moved #6 to the #2 slot. I think initial capital helps greatly as you are more satisfied with small gains on a lot of cash than trying to hit homeruns when starting with a small amount so #1 is a valid headliner. However I feel controlling the emotions ranks up there in the top also as I am still fighting a losing battle with that one. When a trade goes horribly wrong, it is very difficult to just walk away and fight the urge to immediately make it back by over trading or stretching the limits. That is what my main sin was Friday. Had I walked away, I would have lost about 7% or even could have made a small profit if I had closed my trade when my quote feed went dead. By holding then realizing I was in dep kimshee, I tried to work my way out and lost 50%. Emotions ruin the best of plans. Once you feel yourself getting emotional or rationalizing, close the trade and watch some TV or paper trade few times to get back in sync. (note the high percentages are normal in options) Jon K - My cycles are pointing to 2-3 weeks for a top unless we either break down early or have a blow off top. If this week is up as I expect it to be, I will be on full bear alert the following week until we either ease some of this pressure or the FOMC meets. I fully expect some ugliness the latter half of this month. I just hope I have some of my cash back to short the living snot out of it before it does so. <g> I think we are experiencing another round of irrational exuberance mixed with sector rotation. Note the IT services sector took off as I thought it might but I didn't think it would be to this extreme. Also selected internuts are moving pushing the IIX, INX and DOT to resistance areas. All this is being done using the cash from sold off financial and telecom stocks. The software index is maxxing out and PC stocks are also running up for no reason other than the good news of 2 companies. Good Luck, Lee

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