You are both absolutely correct. E-Commerce is only a small fraction of the E-Business universe and E-Business's product life cycle really has not even started. ORCL will ride on the back of SUNW's move into standardizing the internet as the medium to transfer information. Most data, applications and information will reside on the server in the future. Servers will be able to communicate with one another with ease and sophisticated software, from ORCL, will help this communication of information.
IMO, ORCL is issuing the extra stock to become more aggressive in the acquisition market just like SUNW has become. ORCL will dominate the CRM market as a result.
The Win/Tel monopoly companies, like DELL, HWP, MSFT, CPQ, GTW, have benefited for over a decade as a result of the product life cycle of the PC. In the future, I think companies like ORCL, SUNW, CSCO, LU, T, AAPL, NOVL, AOL will benefit as a result of the internet. I also believe that the internets product life cycles of products are much longer than that of the PC. At this point in time, I cannot see any technology transfering the computer age from the interent. We can only improve upon the infrastructure of the internet from here. Thats where execution comes into play. The companies that execute the best will be the winners. ORCL being a multi-national with diverse products and services has a huge lead over many companies. Now they must execute like crazy so they can maintain this leadership position and dominate the software segment.
If we are correct, we all should be able to retire comfortably in about ten years. Lets hope so!!!
Thanks for your time, Bob. |
