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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Bosco who wrote (9299)9/12/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Z268  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
Breaking news: Habibie to invite UN peacekeeping force to East Timor. Looks like this will be an "Asian led" force.
It will be, I think, a "security cooperation" operation, which means UN troops and Indonesian troops will be on the ground in a joint operation.

It is interesting that the man sitting in the chair is making the announcement, and not the men behind the chair. Habibie is gone.

My .02 view of what's coming:

East Timor will be granted independence, but with a lengthy transfer of power process marked by prolonged negotiations. The Indonesians will ensure that the pro-Indonesian population will get a say in East Timor's future.

The TNI will conduct its investigation into charges of complicity with the militia and atrocities against the East Timorese. Scapegoats will be found, and military officers will be courtmartialled to appease International opinion.

This solution will involve guarantees of continuity of IMF and foreign aid to Indonesia to ensure the rebuilding of the economy. There is a price for everything.

The action soon will shift to Jkt. The will be intense bargaining and jockeying for power in the upcoming presidential elections. I think the the Indonesian institution of "musyawarah" will prevail. Every faction will recognise the need for a strong "national reconstruction" government to prevent the Balkanization of the country. A grand coalition will be formed, with a strongman at the lead. This way, both democracy and national interests will be seen to be preserved.

Who and which factions will win out in the process? Who and which factions will lose out in the process? Who will emerge as the strongman? I leave that to my colleagues here on the thread.

Best,
Steve Yeo
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