George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2044)	9/12/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon	Read Replies (2) of 5853

Hello Frank, So now, after looking through the presentation, I too am very curious about your comments on Vinods predictions. It's too bad that they don't have the full audio of the presentation to go with it, since I'm sure that a lot is lost without the dialog ... but some interesting points are made. Much of the information is "common sense" to folks who have been following the market, but he throws in some interesting twists ... - talks about the inevitable growth of networking in general, and comments on falling prices and how affordable bandwidth will grow to be. Also on the falling cost/port of the hardware for high-speed networking. He also addresses the "all optical" networks. - compares the LAN industry revolution and predicts that the WAN/backbone revolution will occur much more rapidly that we anticipate. - has a great graph from Lucent which show how bandwidth demands have been repeatedly underestimated ... as they are now being underestimated again. - has an interesting comment about the best economics being at the OC-48 level ... rather than OC-192 ... and so predicts that OC-48 products and services will dominate for the next 5 years+. - also indicates that the best fiber might be the installed SMF-28 rather than new technologies like the Corning LEAF ... he cites "Higher fiber nonlinearities in new fibers" as the reasons. - thinks that SONET "Class of Service" (COS) will be dominant compared to "Quality of Service" (QOS) technologies, and that these will center around the 45Mbps data rates. - mentions that IP QOS will be done with MPLS - label switching ... (Ok ... dumb question at this point ... what does STS stand for? I know that it's something common, but I'm blanking ... ;-) - has some amazing predictions which I hope are on target! - Fractional STS's will be standard way to provide bandwidth - T3 costs will drop by 10X in 3 years at increasing service levels - COS will succeed QOS as service level standard - IP COS will provide better quality of service than ATM QOS - ATM will be relegated to a “token ring” like role - Old fiber (SMF-28) will have more capacity then newer fibers - OC-48 will have more carrying capacity than OC-192 - then lists many issues that exist which will effect the future direction and pace of change. - He also then reviews the companies that they are involved with and why they have picked them. The various levels of networking that each is involved in. Over all it a pretty nice piece of work. I would say that he is on the same track as most people, but with some slight variations that I have not seen before. It will be interesting to hear from the folks with more background and experience on the issues of DWDM and the OC-48 issues ... I'll look forward to your comments ... Scott C. Lemon

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next