Dave, as usual, I agree with about 90% of your comment. Let's see:
Hopefully, I said I thought financing was in the bag, cause obviously it's not. Personally, I don't get it, because 15 mil doesn't seem like that much money to me. So what the hang up is {if there is a hang up}, I have no f****** idea and as usual can't find anything out.
My guess would be that they close financing this fall. In terms of acceptable amounts, there's something in the 1999 annual information form which can be downloaded from Sedar:
Narrative description of business, Werner Lake Cobalt Project (2nd page of Werner Lake Cobalt Project but pages of Annual Information Form not numbered):
Closing of the transaction is scheduled for 8/31/99 and is is subject to various governmental, court or regulatory filings, among other things.....(as to when it actually closes, I don't know and no one is telling me).
For the Werner Lake Cobalt project to advance into a position whereby a permanent production decision can be made, the final portions of the feasibility study need to be received, and completion financing needs to be secured. Subject to receipt of the final portions of the feasibility study CMR management estimates the minimiumn capital cost to bring Werner into production to be $ 10 million...
I thought I had seen something that said that they could bring Werner into production for $6 mil with cobatec cause they no longer needed to build a refinery, but I can't find the reference now. The reference went on to state that they were going for the 10 mil anyhow in order to be adequately capitalized.
It looks to me that they are not looking for bridge financing. My conclusion is that they think they can get the equity financing they need and don't want to get raped by the banks.
If you can convince Groome that you have 100k loonies, I think they will send you their research.
I no longer think CMR will ship Co in 99.
Hope that helps some. I have many of the same unanswered questions that you do.
As to INCO, yes they produce a lot of metal. The question is AT THE MARGIN, is INCO production increasing or decreasing? How many years is INCO capable of maintaining this level of production? If VB goes into production, when?
As far as I know, they don't even have a road up there to get equipment and supplies to the ore body. No metal for at least 5 more years, right?
In January, some individuals felt no one should go into resource stocks as no demand and huge supply overhang pending. The worm has now turned, and such sentiments can be seen as looking backwards rather than forwards.
Did Inco get old, fat and slow? Did INCO overpay for VB? Are INCO's deposits in Thompson becoming uneconomic. In formulating an answer, we must think not of what has been, but of what will be.
My guess, and it is purely that, is that INCO will not be able to maintain Ni production at 250 kt pa, until production starts at VB. No production from VB for 5 years. Hence, at the margin, decreasing INCO production.
Doesn't mean INCO's stock won't go up. I think this strike is going to be a lot nastier and longer than INCO mgt. thinks, and I think it also (in addition to worn out deposits and lack of technological innovation) will cause decreased INCO ni production in the next 1-2 years/ |
