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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Razorbak who wrote (50998)9/12/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
On the topic of BOOM 2000 and how it can affect oil demand going forward. The funny thing is that nothing has been mentioned of Russia and the CIS states. I hold stock in the Russian vertically integrated oil company Lukoil (they are the biggest public oil company in the world by reserves)
According to what they have been saying, oil demand internal to Russia is up 11% so far this year. Contrary to the predictions, Russia looks to be in for a positive growth year with GDP up 2% or so after being a negative 3% in Q1.
So, there is some more incremental demand for the world oil right there. Also, Russian oil companies have been maximizing the benefit of getting higher prices for oil by exporting (prices internal to Russia are artificially low). For that reason, an oil and gasoline shortage has occurred in Russia (forcing prices much higher). So, the way I look at it, Russia and the CIS states are maxing out on exports currently. Once domestic oil and gasoline prices approach international prices, the incentive to export will be gone, and the demand will be there internally for the oil previously exported. So, there could be a significant drop or at least a levelling off of exports irregardless of how high the prices go.
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