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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst

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To: HeyRainier who wrote (1675)9/12/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: ftth  Read Replies (2) of 1720
 
Hi Rainier, those are interesting stats. The trouble is, to miss those 40 worst days, you'd need to have been out the day prior. Generally the bad day is the one that would give the final confirmation on the signal to get out. What would be interesting is to see statistics on "runs" of bad days, but I guess that complicates things because you'd have to agree on a signal to get out and a signal to get back in. When you go that far, you enter the realm of system testing.

So the question is: does Marty claim to have a method that gets clients out the day before the 40 worst days, and then possibly re-entering at the close of the bad day? I'm sure the answer is no. That's a lot of trading in relative terms, and it would be hard to call such a technique a trend following system. In fact, it'd be hard to call it a method at all since I don't believe anyone could ever execute it (except after-the-fact). So that brings us back to their Mark Twain lead-in.

dh
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