It is true. It should propel the stock to the low 40s fairly quickly. The Palm numbers are spectacular. Here are my estimates, admittedly somewhat rosy, but Palm has ALWAYS surprised on the upside in the past:
The numbers are based on 10K '99 numbers (p. 57) of $570m in
sales, sales increase of 115% over '98, profit in '99 of $47m,
profit increase from $1m in '99. All numbers in millions.
........................ FY2000 ............ FY2001
................... Sales .. Profits .. Sales .. Profits
Hardware .... 1,225 ... 250 .... 2,450 .... 450
palm.net ......... 100 ..... 60 ...... 400 .... 250
Palm OS ........... 20 ..... 15 ......... 60 ..... 50
Total .......... 1,345 .... 325 .... 2,910 .... 750
I am assuming 800 thousand palm.net users by mid-2000 and 1.6 million by end of 2000. 115% hardware sales increase from 1999 to 2000 and 100% increase from 2000 to 2001. Licensing revenues are rough guesstimates (2m licenses in 2000, 6m in 2001 at $10/license).
These numbers, needless to say, disagree with current analyst profit projections. We'll see who is right :-)
Kyros |
