Intel: Short Term Stock and Option Trading/Strategies Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel: Short Term Stock and Option Trading/Strategies

INTC 41.50

+5.0%

Oct 28 3:59 PM EDT

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To: robert w fain who wrote (202)	4/4/1997 1:36:00 AM
From: RayW	of 220

Robert, I have thought of buying put on AMD. AMD could not reach 45 on 4/2 was quite a disappointment. However, there are too many uncertainties with AMD, the risks to short AMD is no worthwhile for the time being. INTC is a much better target to short. Not too many people believe that INTC could crash during this year. It makes the short on INTC even more rewarding than other stocks. The year low of INTC is 50s. It should not be a surprise for INTC drops back to the year low because: 1. Intel became a technology loser from a technology evergreen winner in the last 3 months. 2. Intel has a serious competitor with a better technology and low costs. The new competition on Intel core business will force Intel to reduce the price and increase OEM discounts far beyond their plans. It is going to hurt Intel earrings! 3. The stock price has been tripled in 12 months because the increasing earrings which come from the price-cut-cancellation in Q4/96. Not only this price-cut-cancellation will not happen this year, Intel has to cut her whole line price much deeply than ever before because her competitors have better products. The competition on Intel high-end x86 CPU is the first time in Intel history. After these brokerage houses and their clients exit from INTC, they will cut Intel earring expectation by half at least with the same reasons analyzed here. 4. The stock market will be over-reacted while INTC is corrected to its year low 50s. By monthly charts, INTC has very strong support at 30. The purpose of investment/trade is to make money and reduce the risks. At present, INTC is not a good investment. INTC put is a better investment before the crash actually happens. Good luck for whatever you decide. Read at your own risks!

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