RayW - The Intel Trashmaster - Identity Revealed (Part 1)
Warning - This is an OFF-TOPIC discussion, extremely lengthy - If you are not interested (nor
intrigued) by those posting Intel doom messages on this forum, move on to the next post.
SUMMARY -
Through a careful analysis of the content of his posts, it will be demonstrated unequivocally that
RayW, the recently self-appointed TRASHMASTER of Intel is none other than our old
friend Fuchi Wu from the Cyrix domain, posting under an assumed alias - RayW.
BACKGROUND -
RayW began posting on the Intel and Intel related threads in mid - February, 1997
commensurate with the time that Cyrix's stock was heading upwards on the news that Compaq had designed
in, announced and was shipping, the Presario 2100 using the Cyrix MediaGX chip.
RayW began posting messages of impending disaster for Intel, predicting wild declines in the Intel
stock price - ranging into the low $30 - $50/share price. Really wild. However, Intel's stock was
declining, due in large part to the Compaq/Cyrix MediaGX announcement as well as the impending AMD/K6
announcement.
After reading many (I mean MANY) of RayW's posts (I even responded once to a very early one) I
kept getting the feeling that I have heard this "voice" before. The expressions used, the
intonation, and the vindictive predictions of an implosion in Intel's stock price all had a very
familiar ring to them.
So, about a week ago, I began a little research. As it turns out RayW registered on the SI board Feb. 16,
1997. Fuchi re-registered on the SI board as "Investor A" on February 22, 1997, after an
unexplained silence on the Cyrix thread, especially curious during the run up in Cyrix's stock in early
February through the end of February. At this point, I can offer no explanation for Fuchi's
disappearance from the Cyrix/SI forum, nor his re-emergence as "Investor A", as opposed to his own
name, Fuchi Wu. I will offer some speculation later on.
POINT A - Ray W and Fuchi (Investor A) appear on the SI forum within a few days of each other.
During his early posts, I thought RayW was not only anti-Intel, but most probably an AMD
supporter. No problem here - there are lots of these folks and we welcome them all. In general,
RayW's posts were ANTI- Intel to the max., but he seemed to profess no clear advocacy for either AMD or
Cyrix (at that time). However, RayW posted NOWHERE ELSE on the SI forums except on Intel related
boards, all posts attempting to trash Intel. He has made one recent post on the AMD thread - but
only to trash Intel in a post to "Elmer".
As I reread many of these posts, I discovered Greg Gimelli (Post #13576) came to the same "speculative"
conclusion that RayW was Fuchi - on March 8, 1997.
However, as time goes on, RayW's posts have taken on a strong Cyrix advocacy - again, sounding
EXACTLY like Fuchi - please read the following two such posts.
{=========================================================================================}
o: Addi (15745 )
From: RayW
Mar 28 1997 4:49PM EST
Reply #15746 of 15782
Addi,
I would believe that the coming NetPC fever will be powered by Cyrix
innovative MediaGX for its cost and energy saving features. M$FT will back
it up.
Cyrix MediaGX is much more advanced than any Intel CPUs on market
during this year. Intel could fight back with a similar copy, but, its overall ASP
will be dropped lower than $100 to claim the victory. At that time, ASP for
PC/NetPC will be lower than $500!
{=======================================================================================}
To: Justin Woddis (15764 )
From: RayW
Mar 28 1997 7:35PM EST
Reply #15767 of 15782
Justin,
Go over to your local ComUSA or BestBuy to play with Compaq Presario
2100 and see the picture of tomorrow NetPC yourself.
Compaq Presario 2100 is powered by Cyrix MediaGX that eliminated the
needs for VGA accelerator, sound chip, L2 cache, PCI bus controller, etc. Its
133Mhz performs briskly under 800x600x16bit color. Not only saves the
system costs, it consumes less energy and its motherboard could take less
space. Cyrix prices its MediaGX at $75~$95.
Some Far East manufacturers are developing sub-$499 PC, NetPC or
whatever you call it by using this chip for the mass market. Picture the world
with sub-$499 PC and sub-$699 notebooks with MediaGX inside!
There is a rumor that Toshiba is debugging a 32"TV with MediaGX and CD
ROM. It will be priced $300 more than its regular TV. It will be the first real
InternetTV for recreation and education purposes. Sounds good, right?
Of course, the MediaGX based NetPC will not jeopardize the existence of
Intel Empire. However, these new NetPC will hurt Intel monopoly and its
earrings soberly in the next few years. Consider that INTC is another stock
in a crazy stock market. Its coming crash could be overdone just like another
stock!
Read at your own risks!
{=========================================================================================}
The strong praise for Cyrix's MediaGX chip and the denigration of any and all Intel technology
appears identical in thought and expression to our beloved friend, Fuchi Wu, of Cyrix fame.
THE SMOKING GUN
Now, what piece of evidence could substantiate these claims? I kept looking for such a piece, the
proverbial "smoking gun", and then a little subtle expression from RayW jumped out at me.
THE MYSTERY of the MAGICAL EAR RING
In many of his recent posts, RayW kept predicting with absolute certainty that Intel's earnings in
the future were going to plummet. That is consistent with all his previous posts. But...
RayW NEVER typed the word earnings. He always mistyped this word as earrings! A careful
observer will note the word earrings highlighted in bold in the second post from RayW
reproduced above.
Thanks to the programmers at the SI board, a recent SEARCH function has been implemented. So, I
decided to see how common it was for others to mistype the word earnings as earrings. And lo and
behold - the smoking gun was found!
In the APPENDIX below is a summary of the 41 items (as found by the SEARCH function) posted on the SI threads (ALL inclusive) going back to January
4, 1997. I read them all.
In these posts, the word earrings appears in all 41 posts. Of these 41 posts,
RayW came up with 15 posts in which he typed earrings in place of earnings. And guess whose name came up
in 13 posts, mistyping earrings for earnings? That's right -
FUCHI WU - on the Cyrix thread and the ask Steve thread.
Twelve posts actually discussed "earrings" per se, and only ONE OTHER POST seemed like a legitimate
typo in which earrings was typed in place of earnings.
Statistically speaking, a sample size of 29 posts (ignoring the 12 posts discussing jewelry) with the word earnings mistyped as
earrings, RayW accounted for 15 and Fuchi for 13, for a total of 97%.
Now, ask yourself - with 97% of all posts (from Jan. 4 through Mar. 28) in which the word earnings
was mistyped as earrings all belonging to only TWO PEOPLE out of the thousands that post on the SI
forum (covering TENS OF THOUSANDS of POSTS duringt this time interval), what is the probability that
these two individuals are the same?
For comparison, a search on the word earnings (correctly spelled) yielded 60 postings on March 30,
1997 (the day I am writing this!) which happens to be the maximum number of posts that the
search function will locate. In other words, there are undoubtedly many, many more posts just on
March 30, 1997 that mention earnings .
For arguments sake, let us assume that these 60 posts containing the word earnings are
typical on any given day. That would compute to 60 x 85 = 5100 such posts since the fourth of
January - the last day that the Search function found the word earrings posted. Note -
this number - 5100 - is at the VERY low end of actual postings - today being a Sunday (and Easter
Holiday at that!) plus the limit of 60 "hits" returned by the search function.
To sum up the statistics - of 5100 (BARE MINIMUM) posts mentioning the word earnings, only 41
additional posts contained the word earrings, and only 29 of these 41 were apparent
misspellings of the word earnings. (The others were actually discussing jewelry). Of the 29
misspellings, 28 came from RayW or Fuchi. 5100 other people (Bare minimum) CORRECTLY typed the
word earnings ( or misspelled it DIFFERENTLY! - a possibility).
From a typographical standpoint, misspelling/mistyping the word earnings would probably result in
a letter near "r" or "n" on the keyboard to be substituted for the r and n in the word earnings. The
characters f,e,t 4,5 surround the letter "r" and the characters b,h,j & m surround the letter "n"
on standard keyboards. It would most likely be one of these characters that would be substituted
for either the r or n in earnings, on a random "mis-typing event". But NO! Fuchi and RayW typed
the word earrings EXACTLY THE SAME 28 times between the two of them (13 and 15) and only one other
person (out of AT LEAST 5100) made the same typographical spelling mistake!
The statistical significance of this "typing anomaly" is self-evident!
Consistently mistyping the word earring for the word earning appears to be a habit or trait of
Fuchi's, much like the personal idiosyncacies that some people unknowingly exhibit. The
consistency of this mistyping seems to be an attribute or characteristic of Fuchi's much like fingerprints are unique
attributes of individuals. Fuchi's "earrings", as such, are a dead give away to his (RayW's) identity.
Couple this smoking gun evidence with the ANTI- Intel trashing and the more recent PRO- CYRIX
stance, and only one conclusion can be reached - RayW IS FUCHI Wu.
MOTIVATION
Nearly a year ago, Fuchi predicted Cyrix's stock was going to go to $200 per share. He had been
making similar boasts on the Prodigy bulletin board prior to this, so I'm told. Instead, Cyrix's
stock collapsed to $13 or so from about $40, while Intel's stock has more than doubled in that same
time frame. From many posts by Fuchi, it would appear that he was a big buyer of Cyrix stock from the high $20's all the way up in to the $40's (although that is my conclusion, based only on his postings).
(Note - Cyrix's stock has recently recovered somewhat to about $20, falling from $30 just after the Compaq/MediaGX announcement.)
In reaction to this, Fuchi made a claim, posted on the SI forum, that he was going to bring Intel
to its knees and was working on such a plan. These posts are reproduced below:
{==============================================================================================}
To: deedle
From: fuchi
May 7 1996 4:21AM EST
Reply #823 of 2470
CYRX should be a $200 in less than 18 months. For $60 buyout, you
did have hard time to these Cyrix fans to echo with you.
Check your broker about IDID. This is a crazy stock which could make
some quick money. This penny stock started with 1/16 on the last
Friday, ended at 9/32. It ended at 1 1/32 today (5/6/96) with the
volume of 451 millions shares.
I bought considerable quantity IDID at 9/32 5 minutes before the market
closed on the last Friday, and have been enjoyed the one-day rock ride.
Check out the news behind IDID. You might like its story and potential
as well.
Fuchi ... who loves Cyrix's innovations
BTW, I have to admit that I am a trader. However, I felt pain on the
neck whenever I sold CYRX and HM, and had to get them back
immediately.
I love to make good money and am afraid to miss the CYRX rocket.
{===================================================================}
To: Paul Engel ( 876 )
From: fuchi
Jul 19 1996 7:52PM EST
Reply #882
Paul Engel, I am glad that you have stopped crying. I have to thank you to
expose what's wrong with Intel and its deathly weakness. I know how to take
advantage of these information to increase my fortune.
I found that I have been wasting too much time here to argue with fools and
liars across the SI threads. Admit it or not, I have much better observation
and judgements than most of you here. Why should I encourage other
investors to invest in CYRX? You fools deserve the hell!
I got some pretty cool ideals to drop INTC price to low 10s by 1999 and
would do my utmost efforts to make sure it happens. When it happens, don't
cry too hard. It is money only.
Bye to everyone!
Fuchi ... who loves Cyrix's innovations
{=========================================================================}
Thus, Fuchi has been planning some kind of "attack" on Intel since last July and his use of an
alias, RayW, is part of that plan. He surfaced out of the blue in February of this year as RayW,
and the sole purpose of the use of this alias is to trash Intel, trying to destroy Intel's stock
price.
The casual reader can come to his own understanding for these pathetic attempts at retribution
against Intel.
CONCLUSION
Without a doubt, RayW is Fuchi Wu, posting under an assumed alias. In the larger scheme of things,
this means nothing. However, for active members of this and other Intel forums, PLEASE know with whom
you are dealing when responding to RayW (Fuchi). My own recommendation is to COMPLETELY ignore
all posts by this pathetic creature. It is a complete waste of time, and any response to RayW is
just food for his battered ego.
(APPENDIX to Follow in another Post)
Paul Engel |
