CB,
I would call today's AOL price movement very significant, that is, over two standard deviations greater than the average daily change for the last month. And I would call the volume significant at one standard deviation above the average volume for the last month. To put the volume in perspective, the average volume on AOL has over the last month or so gone from about 22 million per day to currently around 14 million, so it's a little easier to hit the one standard deviation mark than a month ago. Though both volume and price change were unusual by recent standards, this does not in itself indicate a bottom, though technically there is probably some support around 89.
What I find the most persuasive of a short-term drop was watching the "Time & Sales" stream by all day. Most of the activity was small shareholders, 100, 200, 300 shares. Only occasionally, were there blocks of 10-30 thousand. I would guess AOL opens up two points tomorrow mornings, but that's only a guess.
Best,
--Steve |
