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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (61483)9/13/1999 4:34:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
you didn't ask me, but i'll comment anyway. these charts look BAD. they either turn right here and now(unlikely), or there's going to be a hefty decline. note that the banks never reached their '98 highs again and this rounding/h&s top they've made now looks OMINOUS. also the bearish cross-over of 50 and 200 dma's is discouraging to say the least. based on the well-worn theory that the overall market tends to follow the banks eventually, this is a great portent for the two or three bears that remain on WS.
why are the banks and brokers so weak? there are actually several fundamental reasons that support what the charts are saying here (get out! is what they're saying): one is the issue of widening credit spreads; since the b's&b's have derivatives on their books like never before (or rather, try to keep them off the books, but are in them anyway), their quant models have backfired for sure on the credit spread thingy. the other reason is the quiet collapse of Latin America...it may not be deemed worthy to be reported by CNBS, but LatAm economies are mostly in depression already. with the Fed in tightening mode, the situation can only get worse.
so there's good reason to dump the 'downbeaten and oversold' financials that so many WS analysts 'like here'. they will soon like them even more, as last october's lows are broken and soon become a distant, fond memory as fresh lows are explored.
please don't take anything of the above seriously, better buy them hand over fist...now that i've posted the above crap, a move to new highs can be a mere days away at most...
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