Heinz,
From your post 61549:
<< obviously it is utter nonsense to say that a new bull market began last october. note that a/d and NH/NL NEVER got back to bull market status in the current upleg.>>
I disagree on this point and suggest that the greatest bull market in our generation began just as this one has, and after the first leg up ended, the A/D line took out the bear market A/D low, as seen on this chart:
decisionpoint.com
Notice the similarities.... The preceding bear market ended 4/1/80, followed by a nearly vertical 45% rally. Our prior bear mkt. began in early Oct. 97, kicked off by the largest one day drop ever, then completed on 10/8/98 with a 20% collapse from the 7/20/98 highs... which was followed by a nearly vertical 45% rally in the S&P.
Both periods then spent months topping after the 45% rally before a strong wave of selling took hold, breaking the A/D line below the bear mkt. bottom in both cases. The intitial wave of selling was followed by a strong rebound, which crested in early Dec of '81, and in our case crested late last month. I expect the same type of action in the current multi-month sell-off as we saw from the Dec.'81 rebound high to the eventual 1982 bottom. But please note that 82's low did not take out 4/80's low, and was an obvious Wave 2 retracement of that 45% rally. Thus, we will not take out October's lows in the major indices, and maximum move limitations based on the topping action since 4/13/99 say we can not and will not break 1150 SPX.
We are progressing through the pattern at twice the speed of the predecessor, and I have us pegged at a point comparable to 2/1/99, at the top of another rebound rally.
Once that bottom is in... THEN we get the SUPER BLOW-OFF move you and I've been looking for. For a prelude, just take a peek at the move off the '82 bottom... WOW!!!
FWIW & IMO,
BRH |
