Here's why Daniel's "SWISS CHEESE LOGIC" analysis that LSI is growing at only 8% is not only wrong, it's laughably wrong.
By the way Big Sky, if Daniel's 'pro-forma' argument is your idea of "intelligent" investing, you're gonna have to do a considerably better job of researching your investments. LSI is CLEARLY growing at nearly a 30% annualized rate this year--and I'm chuckling to myself we're even engaging in this conversation. And DWB, if you're gonna brag and gloat and "show-off" your knowledge of investing, please do us all a favor, and get your facts IN ORDER before you shoot your mouth off. Then, you won't have to suffer the embarrassment of pulling your foot out of your mouth when your "facts" get called into question.
You canNOT use LSI's pro forma number to use as a base for a growth rate. WHY? LSI's pro forma number is only a generalization, an overview, or to put it in other words,
an-approximate-hope-we-get-it-right educated GUESS. It's a number you can NOT and should NOT rely upon. And certainly NOT use to gauge growth rates and investment decisions.
Daniel, you pointed out you pulled the pro forma number from LSI's 10K, but you BS'd everyone on this thread about the existence of the legal "qualifier" LSI puts right before they reveal the number (page 50 FYI) Word for word, here's what their disclaimer states--
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PRO FORMA RESULTS. The following pro forma summary is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not necessarily indicative of the consolidated results of operations for future periods or that actually would have
been realized had the Company and Symbios been a consolidated entity during the periods presented.
**********************************************************
It's a number that can't be relied on.
And one reason for that is that Symbios was never a publicly traded entity. They were, if effect, a private company and even LSI isn't entirely sure what the actual revenues for the first 3 quarters of the year were for Symbios. So while every other figure in LSI's 10K is warranted as accurate, the pro forma number is their best shot (guess) and they tell you so.
Certainly you can follow blind-man Dessauer's reasoning by hinging your investment decisions on the hollow guesses of pro forma numbers, but if you're smart you take a more pragmatic approach.
Take the fourth quarter of '98 (which by the way Daniel, INCLUDES Symbios), use that as your baseline, and then figure the growth rate from that.
Q4 '98 Revenue: 445 million = BASELINE
Q1 '99 Revenue: 463 million = 4% growth
Q2 '99 Revenue: 501 million = 9% growth
Q3 (projected): 531 to 541 million = 6 to 8% growth
Q4 (projected): 562 to 584 million = 6 to 8% growth
Total growth for 1999 25% to 29% growth
BTW Daniel, I SPECIFICALLY mentioned that LSI was growing AROUND 30%. You paraphrased that I said 30%. But then again, I've come to learn you like to paraphrase and misquote (and in some ways MISLEAD and B.S. the participants of this thread, for that matter.)
Anyway, I realize you're gonna want to start attacking my explanation so I ask you to not believe one word of what I'm saying. Instead, I DARE you to INVESTIGATE FOR YOURSELF what I'm saying by calling LSI's Investor Relations.
Since you've so ably demonstrated your investing prowess and expertise on LSI, my guess is you've never called IR at LSI. For your convenience here's the phone number:
(408) 433-8000. Ask for Robert Sison and he'll explain it to you.
After you've done that Daniel, share with us what you discovered. We're all looking forward to hearing what you have to say...
Ron |
