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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 477.80-2.5%10:21 AM EST

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To: codawg who wrote (29426)9/14/1999 2:33:00 AM
From: RTev  Read Replies (2) of 74651
 
If Fortune 500 companies haven't frozen their systems yet, then why bother. If they have, I think we'd be seeing a slew of negative pre-announcements from the tech companies that sell to them

I agree that Y2K stories have become largely hype which is, by its nature, overblown. But is it a complex issue. Two years ago, there was genuine reason to worry since too little had been done. But the level of testing in the US seems to be impressive. I expect that the biggest problem on January 1, will be the traffic jams caused by TV microwave trucks rushing to the scene of the few places where something untoward actually does occur.

There are some signs that a slowdown caused by Y2K lockdowns is happening. Here's a wide-ranging look at the market from Fred Hickey, a bearish analyst, but he pulls out some interesting data about the PC market. (Start with the section "A Puzzling Development" if you'd rather skip his 1929 comparisons.)

siliconinvestor.com

Some highlights (or lowlights):
Ingram's Q3 business is very weak. ... The number two distributor in the world, Tech Data, saw its stock crater 20% yesterday due to concerns of lower margins and price wars. Price wars do not usually occur when demand is booming. ... The third largest distributor in the world, CHS Electronics also held a conference call last month. The second quarter numbers were shockingly bad.
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