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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Mat Miller who wrote (10)4/4/1997 10:40:00 AM
From: Q.   of 167
 
Here's the entire AAII survey from inception to last week.

Look at the corrections in 1987 and 1996 --- how sentiment goes
from euphoric just before the correction to quite depressed after
about a dozen weeks.

Also note that small corrections
like the one in Oct. 1989 are not predicted by the investor sentiment.

(If you want to graph it by importing it into a spreadsheet for
example, you may have to fix a couple of dates where the MM/DD are
transposed into DD/MM, and a few data points that are listed as NM or
NA instead of a number.)

S&P 500
Percent Percent Percent Weekly
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Close
=============================================
07/17/87 314.59
07/24/87 36% 50% 14% 309.27
07/31/87 26% 48% 26% 318.66
08/07/87 56% 15% 29% 323.00
08/14/87 45% 35% 20% 333.99
08/21/87 66% 28% 6% 335.90 === 2-wk ave > 55%
08/28/87 52% 18% 30% 323.04
09/04/87 42% 17% 41% 316.70
09/11/87 50% 23% 27% 321.98
09/18/87 60% 29% 11% 314.86
09/25/87 53% 17% 30% 320.16 == start 12-week wait
10/02/87 44% 26% 30% 328.07
10/09/87 46% 39% 15% 311.07
10/16/87 37% 30% 33% 282.70
10/23/87 39% 30% 31% 248.22
10/30/87 44% 23% 33% 251.79
11/06/87 47% 31% 22% 250.41
11/13/87 31% 41% 28% 245.64
11/20/87 39% 42% 19% 242.00
11/27/87 27% 46% 27% 240.34
12/04/87 25% 33% 42% 223.92
12/11/87 23% 45% 32% 235.32 == 12 weeks later,
12/18/87 33% 40% 27% 249.16
12/24/87 28% 52% 20% 252.02
12/31/87 25% 49% 26% 247.08
01/08/88 34% 46% 20% 243.40
01/15/88 34% 40% 26% 252.05
01/22/88 21% 48% 31% 246.50
01/29/88 26% 45% 29% 257.07
02/05/88 32% 53% 15% 250.96
02/12/88 32% 46% 22% 257.63
02/19/88 27% 49% 24% 261.61
02/26/88 30% 51% 19% 262.46
03/04/88 38% 40% 22% 267.30
03/11/88 43% 40% 17% 264.94
03/18/88 41% 49% 10% 271.12
03/25/88 45% 38% 17% 258.51
04/01/88 35% 45% 20% 258.89
04/08/88 33% 48% 19% 269.43
04/15/88 23% 53% 24% 259.77
04/22/88 23% 57% 20% 260.14
04/29/88 22% 48% 30% 261.33
05/06/88 38% 42% 20% 257.48
05/13/88 19% 56% 25% 256.78
05/20/88 23% 52% 25% 253.02
05/27/88 28% 52% 20% 253.42
06/03/88 26% 62% 12% 266.45
06/10/88 28% 49% 23% 271.26
06/17/88 29% 50% 21% 270.68
06/24/88 33% 44% 23% 273.78
07/01/88 45% 38% 17% 271.78
07/08/88 35% 50% 15% 270.02
07/15/88 26% 37% 37% 272.05
07/22/88 16% 58% 26% 263.50
07/29/88 23% 54% 23% 272.02
08/05/88 21% 49% 30% 271.15
08/12/88 26% 48% 26% 262.55
08/19/88 19% 53% 28% 260.24
08/26/88 28% 40% 32% 259.68
09/02/88 18% 43% 39% 264.48
09/09/88 17% 52% 31% 266.84
09/16/88 24% 46% 30% 270.65
09/23/88 20% 53% 27% 269.76
09/30/88 26% 44% 30% 271.91
10/07/88 13% 49% 38% 278.07
10/14/88 22% 46% 32% 275.50
10/21/88 26% 51% 23% 283.66
10/28/88 40% 38% 22% 278.53
11/04/88 35% 46% 19% 276.31
11/11/88 23% 56% 21% 267.92
11/18/88 30% 34% 36% 266.47
11/25/88 17% 44% 39% 267.23
12/02/88 19% 47% 34% 271.81
12/09/88 17% 44% 39% 277.03
12/16/88 24% 54% 22% 276.29
12/23/88 22% 46% 32% 277.87
12/30/88 24% 54% 22% 277.72
01/06/89 26% 51% 23% 280.67
01/13/89 36% 44% 20% 283.87
01/20/89 36% 47% 17% 286.63
01/27/89 32% 49% 19% 293.82
02/03/89 33% 44% 23% 296.97
02/10/89 43% 31% 26% 292.02
02/17/89 42% 41% 17% 296.76
02/24/89 29% 45% 26% 287.13
03/03/89 29% 35% 36% 291.18
03/10/89 13% 52% 35% 292.88
03/17/89 28% 43% 29% 292.69
03/23/89 29% 41% 30% 288.98
03/31/89 18% 42% 40% 294.87
04/07/89 23% 45% 32% 297.16
04/14/89 25% 42% 33% 301.36
04/21/89 21% 51% 28% 309.61
04/28/89 31% 40% 29% 309.64
05/05/89 30% 40% 30% 307.61
05/12/89 38% 43% 19% 313.84
05/19/89 43% 38% 19% 321.24
05/26/89 48% 31% 21% 321.59
06/02/89 42% 27% 31% 325.52
06/09/89 43% 34% 23% 326.69
06/16/89 32% 37% 31% 321.35
06/23/89 33% 22% 45% 328.00
06/30/89 40% 34% 26% 317.98
07/07/89 37% 32% 31% 324.91
07/14/89 22% 30% 48% 331.84
07/21/89 32% 39% 29% 335.90
07/28/89 41% 25% 34% 342.15
08/04/89 35% 30% 35% 343.92
08/11/89 53% 21% 26% 344.74
08/18/89 35% 28% 37% 346.03
08/25/89 45% 24% 31% 350.52
09/01/89 34% 30% 36% 353.73
09/08/89 30% 30% 40% 348.76
09/15/89 31% 44% 25% 345.06
09/22/89 24% 37% 39% 347.05
09/29/89 33% 38% 29% 349.15
10/06/89 24% 43% 33% 358.78
10/13/89 28% 52% 20% 333.65
10/20/89 39% 28% 33% 347.16
10/27/89 36% 33% 31% 335.06
11/03/89 37% 31% 32% 337.62
11/10/89 27% 37% 36% 339.10
11/17/89 24% 28% 48% 341.61
11/22/89 27% 40% 33% 343.97
12/01/89 28% 40% 32% 350.63
12/08/89 31% 41% 28% 348.69
12/15/89 42% 30% 28% 350.14
12/22/89 36% 32% 32% 347.42
12/29/89 35% 31% 34% 353.40
01/05/90 40% 30% 30% 352.20
01/12/90 45% 38% 17% 339.93
01/19/90 31% 49% 20% 339.15
01/26/90 24% 38% 38% 325.80
02/02/90 15% 37% 48% 330.92
02/09/90 19% 30% 51% 333.62
02/16/90 23% 43% 34% 332.72
02/23/90 24% 38% 38% 324.15
03/02/90 21% 37% 42% 335.54
03/09/90 22% 42% 36% 337.93
03/16/90 25% 35% 40% 341.91
03/23/90 37% 39% 24% 337.22
03/30/90 34% 35% 31% 339.94
04/06/90 38% 37% 25% 340.08
04/12/90 27% 56% 17% 344.34
04/20/90 34% 43% 23% 335.12
04/27/90 28% 35% 37% 329.11
05/04/90 20% 35% 45% 338.39
05/11/90 28% 38% 34% 352.00
05/18/90 37% 35% 28% 354.64
05/25/90 39% 32% 29% 354.58
06/01/90 37% 28% 35% 363.16
06/08/90 35% 35% 30% 358.71
06/15/90 43% 32% 25% 362.91
06/22/90 34% 32% 34% 355.43
06/29/90 31% 31% 38% 358.02
07/06/90 28% 34% 38% 358.42
07/13/90 40% 30% 30% 367.31
07/20/90 40% 30% 30% 361.61
07/27/90 52% 24% 24% 353.44
08/03/90 26% 28% 46% 344.86
08/10/90 25% 21% 54% 335.52
08/17/90 18% 23% 59% 327.83
08/24/90 25% 24% 51% 311.51
08/31/90 23% 16% 61% 322.56
09/07/90 33% 18% 49% 323.40
09/14/90 16% 33% 51% 316.83
09/21/90 13% 31% 56% 311.32
09/28/90 26% 20% 54% 306.05
10/05/90 15% 26% 59% 311.50
10/12/90 21% 27% 52% 300.03
10/19/90 13% 20% 67% 312.48
10/26/90 23% 19% 58% 304.71
11/02/90 20% 36% 44% 311.85
11/09/90 20% 32% 48% 313.74
11/16/90 12% 33% 55% 317.12
11/21/90 16% 37% 47% 315.10
11/30/90 22% 33% 45% 322.22
12/07/90 26% 33% 41% 327.75
12/14/90 31% 31% 38% 326.82
12/21/90 16% 34% 50% 331.75
12/28/90 30% 30% 40% 328.72
01/04/91 31% 39% 30% 321.00
01/11/91 22% 30% 48% 315.23
01/18/91 22% 27% 51% 332.23
01/25/91 25% 25% 50% 336.07
02/01/91 29% 29% 42% 343.05
02/08/91 36% 28% 36% 359.35
02/15/91 46% 30% 24% 369.09
02/22/91 57% 20% 23% 365.65
03/01/91 50% 18% 32% 370.42
03/08/91 50% 21% 29% 374.95
03/15/91 55% 22% 23% 373.59
03/22/91 42% 31% 27% 367.48
03/29/91 47% 28% 25% 375.22
04/05/91 58% 22% 20% 375.36
04/12/91 43% 32% 25% 380.40
04/19/91 39% 39% 22% 384.20
04/26/91 55% 28% 17% 379.02
03/05/91 39% 33% 28% 380.80
10/05/91 38% 34% 28% 375.74
05/17/91 42% 32% 26% 372.39
05/24/91 38% 39% 23% 377.49
05/31/91 42% 35% 23% 389.83
06/07/91 46% 37% 17% 379.43
06/14/91 47% 31% 22% 382.29
06/21/91 44% 40% 16% 377.75
06/28/91 28% 37% 35% 371.16
07/03/91 28% 39% 33% 373.33
07/12/91 41% 39% 20% 380.25
07/19/91 27% 51% 22% 384.22
07/26/91 35% 42% 23% 380.93
08/02/91 33% 36% 31% 387.18
08/09/91 26% 45% 29% 387.12
08/16/91 37% 33% 30% 385.58
08/23/91 32% 36% 32% 394.17
08/30/91 41% 40% 19% 395.43
09/06/91 36% 31% 33% 389.10
09/13/91 43% 39% 18% 383.59
09/20/91 32% 48% 20% 387.92
09/27/91 31% 38% 31% 385.90
10/04/91 35% 30% 35% 381.24
10/11/91 39% 37% 24% 381.45
10/18/91 30% 31% 39% 392.50
10/25/91 31% 36% 33% 384.20
11/01/91 52% 12% 36% 391.32
11/08/91 32% 36% 32% 392.89
11/15/91 38% 33% 29% 382.62
11/22/91 48% 32% 20% 376.14
11/27/91 33% 27% 40% 376.55
12/06/91 23% 32% 45% 379.10
12/13/91 33% 30% 34% 384.47
12/20/91 36% 30% 34% 387.04
12/27/91 39% 29% 32% 406.46
01/03/92 49% 20% 31% 419.34
01/10/92 48% 27% 25% 415.10
01/17/92 51% 21% 28% 418.86
01/31/92 47% 26% 27% 408.79
02/07/92 36% 39% 25% 411.09
02/14/92 46% 28% 26% 412.48
02/21/92 47% 25% 28% 411.46
02/28/92 43% 36% 21% 412.70
03/06/92 45% 29% 26% 404.44
03/13/92 38% 35% 27% 405.84
03/20/92 48% 29% 23% 411.30
03/27/92 43% 35% 22% 403.50
04/03/92 35% 42% 23% 401.55
04/10/92 43% 27% 30% 404.29
04/17/92 37% 38% 25% 416.05
04/24/92 52% 34% 14% 409.02
05/01/92 29% 36% 35% 412.53
05/08/92 43% 31% 26% 416.05
05/15/92 40% 37% 23% 410.09
05/22/92 48% 24% 28% 414.02
05/29/92 41% 43% 16% 415.35
06/05/92 41% 40% 19% 413.48
06/12/92 31% 46% 23% 409.76
06/19/92 35% 37% 28% 403.67
06/26/92 39% 34% 27% 403.45
07/02/92 21% 44% 35% 411.77
07/10/92 23% 42% 35% 414.62
07/17/92 29% 40% 31% 415.62
07/24/92 32% 44% 24% 411.60
07/31/92 22% 47% 31% 424.21
08/07/92 28% 39% 33% 418.88
08/14/92 26% 37% 37% 419.91
08/21/92 22% 34% 44% 414.85
08/28/92 30% 37% 33% 414.84
09/04/92 14% 44% 42% 417.08
09/11/92 22% 39% 39% 419.58
09/18/92 21% 42% 37% 422.93
09/25/92 25% 34% 41% 414.35
10/02/92 30% 35% 35% 410.47
10/09/92 21% 35% 44% 402.66
10/16/92 20% 24% 56% 411.73
10/23/92 21% 32% 47% 414.10
10/30/92 35% 35% 30% 418.68
11/06/92 49% 27% 24% 417.58
11/13/92 37% 44% 19% 422.43
11/20/92 48% 38% 14% 426.65
11/25/92 43% 37% 20% 429.19
12/04/92 37% 39% 24% 432.06
12/11/92 43% 42% 15% 433.73
12/18/92 63% 27% 10% 441.28
12/24/92 55% 30% 15% 439.77
12/31/92 60% 27% 13% 435.71
01/08/93 20% 49% 31% 429.05
01/15/93 54% 32% 14% 437.15
01/22/93 41% 38% 21% 436.11
01/29/93 40% 37% 23% 438.78
02/05/93 44% 34% 22% 448.93
02/12/93 47% 31% 22% 444.58
02/19/93 46% 27% 27% 434.22
02/26/93 34% 32% 34% 443.38
03/05/93 27% 36% 37% 446.11
03/12/93 45% 33% 22% 449.83
03/19/93 41% 32% 27% 450.18
03/26/93 43% 34% 23% 447.78
04/02/93 37% 36% 27% 441.39
04/09/93 32% 39% 29% 441.84
04/16/93 31% 35% 34% 448.94
04/23/93 28% 42% 30% 437.03
04/30/93 22% 37% 41% 440.19
05/07/93 21% 45% 34% 446.09
05/14/93 20% 41% 39% 445.42
05/21/93 21% 34% 45% 448.84
05/28/93 24% 37% 39% 450.19
06/04/93 33% 39% 28% 450.06
06/11/93 23% 36% 41% 447.26
06/18/93 22% 35% 43% 443.61
06/25/93 28% 38% 34% 447.60
07/02/93 18% 44% 38% 445.84
07/09/93 21% 45% 34% 448.13
07/16/93 22% 44% 34% 445.75
07/23/93 24% 43% 33% 447.10
07/30/93 25% 45% 30% 448.13
08/06/93 26% 42% 32% 448.68
08/13/93 25% 41% 34% 450.14
08/20/93 29% 41% 30% 456.16
08/27/93 27% 35% 38% 460.54
09/03/93 38% 33% 29% 461.23
09/10/93 30% 30% 40% 461.72
09/17/93 32% 34% 34% 458.83
09/24/93 28% 40% 32% 457.63
10/01/93 26% 34% 40% 461.29
10/08/93 29% 37% 34% 460.31
10/15/93 31% 38% 31% 469.50
10/22/93 42% 30% 28% 463.29
10/29/93 43% 33% 24% 467.83
11/04/93 32% 36% 32% 459.57
11/11/93 35% 30% 35% 465.39
11/18/93 34% 31% 35% 462.6
11/24/93 45% 30% 25% 462.36
12/03/93 33% 32% 35% 464.89
12/10/93 37% 39% 24% 463.93
12/17/93 33% 38% 29% 466.38
12/23/93 36% 31% 33% 467.38
12/31/93 44% 28% 28% 466.45
01/07/94 40% 33% 27% 469.9
01/14/94 38% 31% 31% 474.91
01/21/94 48% 26% 26% 474.72
01/28/94 41% 25% 34% 478.7
02/04/94 38% 29% 33% 469.61
02/11/94 49% 27% 24% 470.18
02/18/94 40% 36% 24% 467.69
02/25/94 41% 30% 29% 466.07
03/04/94 31% 42% 27% 464.74
03/11/94 29% 34% 37% 466.44
03/18/94 24% 41% 35% 471.06
03/25/94 29% 37% 34% 460.58
04/01/94 23% 33% 44% 445.77
04/08/94 28% 31% 41% 447.1
04/15/94 29% 23% 48% 446.18
04/22/94 26% 41% 33% 447.63
04/29/94 27% 35% 38% 450.91
05/06/94 32% 32% 36% 447.82
05/13/94 38% 32% 30% 444.14
05/20/94 22% 36% 42% 454.22
05/27/94 29% 33% 38% 457.33
06/03/94 39% 36% 25% 460.13
06/10/94 28% 47% 25% 458.67
06/17/94 32% 42% 26% 458.45
06/24/94 29% 45% 26% 442.8
07/01/94 32% 37% 31% 446.2
07/08/94 28% 32% 40% 449.55
07/15/94 25% 40% 35% 454.16
07/22/94 34% 38% 28% 453.11
07/29/94 27% 42% 31% 458.26
08/05/94 22% 52% 26% 457.09
08/12/94 34% 37% 29% 461.94
08/19/94 30% 40% 30% 463.68
08/26/94 32% 39% 29% 473.8
09/02/94 43% 34% 23% 470.99
09/09/94 47% 33% 20% 468.18
09/16/94 45% 25% 30% 471.19
09/23/94 37% 36% 27% 459.67
09/30/94 38% 32% 30% 462.69
10/07/94 33% 39% 28% 455.1
10/14/94 35% 39% 26% 469.1
10/21/94 39% 33% 28% 464.89
10/28/94 43% 38% 19% 473.77
11/04/94 40% 35% 25% 462.28
11/11/94 37% 31% 32% 462.35
11/18/94 39% 22% 39% 461.47
11/25/94 39% 32% 29% 449.93
11/30/94 44% 30% 26% 453.3
12/09/94 30% 35% 35% 446.96
12/16/94 33% 35% 32% 458.8
12/23/94 42% 25% 33% 459.67
12/30/94 40% 43% 17% 459.27
01/06/95 44% 31% 25% 460.68
01/13/95 36% 42% 22% 465.97
01/20/95 37% 39% 24% 464.78
01/27/95 38% 37% 25% 470.39
02/03/95 38% 37% 25% 478.64
02/10/95 34% 43% 23% 481.46
02/17/95 43% 37% 20% 481.97
02/24/95 46% 37% 17% 488.11
03/03/95 53% 26% 21% 485.42
03/10/95 48% 34% 18% 489.57
03/17/95 39% 41% 20% 495.52
03/24/95 47% 30% 23% 500.97
03/31/95 52% 23% 25% 500.71
04/07/95 42% 25% 33% 506.42
04/13/95 40% 23% 37% 509.23
04/21/95 37% 27% 36% 508.49
04/28/95 52% 29% 19% 514.71
05/05/95 42% 27% 31% 520.12
05/12/95 44% 26% 30% 525.55
05/19/95 42% 23% 35% 519.19
05/26/95 44% 26% 30% 523.68
06/02/95 39% 34% 27% 532.51
06/09/95 44% 25% 31% 527.94
06/16/95 36% 31% 33% 539.83
06/23/95 48% 21% 31% 549.79
06/30/95 35% 28% 37% 544.75
07/07/95 35% 34% 31% 556.37
07/14/95 44% 18% 38% 559.89
07/21/95 43% 30% 27% 553.62
07/28/95 41% 26% 33% 562.93
08/04/95 38% 34% 28% 558.94
08/11/95 40% 30% 30% 555.11
08/18/95 36% 43% 21% 559.21
08/25/95 35% 28% 37% 560.10
09/01/95 38% 42% 20% 563.84
09/08/95 37% 36% 27% 572.68
09/15/95 46% 32% 22% 583.35
09/22/95 46% 25% 29% 581.73
09/29/95 42% 27% 31% 584.41
10/06/95 39% 37% 24% 582.49
10/13/95 41% 30% 29% 584.50
10/20/95 47% 32% 21% 587.46
10/27/95 46% 33% 21% 579.70
11/03/95 47% 34% 19% 590.57
11/10/95 49% 35% 16% 600.07
11/24/95 48% 18% 34% 598.40
12/01/95 51% 30% 19% 606.98
12/08/95 48% 28% 24% 617.48
12/15/95 51% 23% 26% 616.34
12/22/95 48% 28% 24% 611.96
12/29/95 46% 34% 20% 615.96
01/05/96 55% 18% 27% 616.71
01/12/96 NA NA NA 601.81
01/19/96 42% 29% 29% 611.83
01/26/96 36% 40% 24% 621.62
02/02/96 54% 31% 15% 635.84
02/09/96 53% 31% 16% 656.37
02/16/96 54% 21% 25% 647.98
02/23/96 49% 22% 29% 659.08
03/01/96 45% 28% 27% 644.37
03/08/96 44% 28% 28% 633.50
03/15/96 36% 35% 29% 641.43
03/22/96 47% 31% 22% 650.62
03/29/96 45% 31% 24% 645.50
04/05/96 40% 43% 17% 655.86
04/12/96 40% 42% 18% 636.71
04/19/96 36% 38% 26% 645.07
04/26/96 28% 40% 32% 653.46
05/03/96 48% 31% 21% 641.63
05/10/96 46% 38% 16% 652.09
05/17/96 37% 40% 23% 668.91
05/24/96 51% 35% 14% 678.51
05/31/96 61% 29% 10% 669.12 ==== 55% 2 wk ave
06/07/96 47% 28% 25% 673.31
06/14/96 49% 28% 23% 665.85
06/21/96 42% 32% 26% 666.84
06/28/96 42% 41% 17% 670.63
07/03/96 32% 44% 24% 657.44
07/12/96 40% 35% 25% 646.19
07/19/96 29% 45% 26% 638.73
07/26/96 30% 32% 38% 635.90 == actual bottom
08/02/96 29% 38% 33% 662.49
08/09/96 27% 42% 31% 662.10
08/16/96 43% 37% 20% 665.21 == 12 weeks later
08/23/96 28% 46% 26% 667.03
08/30/96 28% 43% 29% 651.99
09/06/96 29% 35% 36% 655.68
09/13/96 26% 46% 28% 680.54
09/20/96 28% 41% 31% 687.03
09/27/96 34% 39% 27% 686.19
10/04/96 40% 31% 29% 701.46
10/11/96 38% 36% 26% 700.66
10/18/96 39% 36% 25% 710.82
10/25/96 42% 33% 25% 700.92
11/01/96 37% 29% 34% 703.77
11/08/96 26% 45% 29% 730.82
11/15/96 37% 34% 29% 737.62
11/22/96 43% 30% 27% 748.73
11/29/96 52% 27% 21% 755.00
12/06/96 41% 26% 33% 739.60
12/13/96 40% 28% 32% 728.64
12/20/96 33% 28% 39% 748.87
12/26/96 37% 33% 30% 756.79
01/03/97 43% 33% 24% 748.03
01/10/97 36% 39% 25% 759.50
01/17/97 42% 32% 26% 776.17
01/24/97 37% 41% 22% 777.56
01/31/97 51% 33% 16% 786.16
02/07/97 47% 29% 24% 789.56
02/14/97 45% 37% 18% 808.48
02/21/97 44% 36% 20% 801.77
02/28/97 63% 22% 15% 790.82 == 53.5 % 2-wk ave bullishness
03/07/97 43% 37% 20% 804.97
03/14/97 34% 36% 30% 793.17
03/21/97 36% 42% 22% 784.10
03/28/97 27% 40% 33%
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