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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (67636)9/14/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: rudedog  Read Replies (2) of 97611
 
Harry -
Kumar seems a little out of his depth here. The big servers, for instance, make a splash but have little revenue impact - SUN sold less than 1000 UE10000 systems so far this year. The money is still in 4-way and some 8-way systems. Same with clustering - Kumar does not appear to understand the revenue that those systems bring in, which is not very significant.

His downtime statement is nonsense. He talks about IBM 390 then says the market belongs to Unix. Does he think 390's run Unix? Tandem systems have seconds of downtime a year, and the 5-minute 390 downtime is not routine across the customer base but is only for certain configurations. Both CPQ and HP offer NT systems with minutes per year downtime guarantees. But that is not a revenue issue either. Between Tandem and the OpenVMS business, CPQ owns about 70% of the high reliability business, IBM is a distant second. Unix is only a player in "mid-tier" reliability (99.9% systems). Kumar obviously does not know much about that market.

Having said that, he is right about 1 thing - NT is a couple of years away from high reliability except in those carefully controlled configurations above.

I think his general trend estimates are OK on PCs. Y2K impact is still an open question - depends a lot on how one asks the questions.
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