Dear Dude,
What is ten years if you do ground breaking R&D?. IT professionals and investors are spoilt rotten by the pace at which IT/internet developments SEEM to happen (but there is also a lot hot air around, which will be blown away eventually)
Now, if you want to judge the development time of Wave's solution, it is useful to compare it to lead times in other industries that are considered value for money for investors.
For instance: Let me ask you a question: would you think it is a good idea to have invested in the pharmaceutical company that made Viagra? Surely that is a good investment?
Well, depends on you're point of view. Ten years is about the average time required to bring a drug from lab to Stage 3 clinical trials. Development costs for a drug averages between $200 to $400 million. A drug is considered a blockbuster drug (like viagra)when it would generate more than $1 billion in profits for the company. A good drug may earn $500 million profits over 10-20 years. Then there is the risk (which can only be quantified when millions of people have used it) that there could be unforetold side-effects, and the company gets sued for its trouble.
So far Wave has spent $60 million in development costs over 10 years, and if its potential is realised, there is a realistic chance of billions of dollars in profit. And very little risk of being sued.
Now I for one like those figures. The degree of risk (and the development time) is understandable if you need to convert and take the whole world along with you. You seem to forget that the debate has moved ever closer to Wave's technology and strategic position with time, especially over the last year.
You also seem to forget the predictions of the pundits that reckon that it is the companies that are doing the bricks and mortar jobs for the internet that are going to make the big money, rather than the pure internet plays. That is another reason I like Wave - it provides a unique "brick" i.e. the technology to cover that last mile to the private customer's house on the CLIENT's side. It has everything such a "brick" needs (speed, versatility,metering security, low cost). In addition it has the (great) potential to be a content vendor, aggregator, or back end administrator for other content companies. Therefore there is scope for it to make a buck no matter how e-commerce plays out.
Everybody on this thread acknowledges that the crux of the prognosis lies in Embassy making it onto either set top boxes, PCs or whatever.To that goal it is making excellent progress
In my day job I take pulses many times a day and prognosticate about a probability that is essentially unknowable (ie my diagnosis).
If you don't feel comfortable in just keeping on feeling this company's pulse and judging whether it is making progress, then it is not for you.
In my mind, the prognosis is excellent
One last tip: Go to the archives for Wired Magazine, search back to 1997 for the article New Rules of the Network Economy, study it carefully, and then come back here and tell us why YOU think it is not a good idea for Wave to give away the Embassy chip for FREE. Also study very carefully the growth curve of companies in such an economy, and come back here and explain to us why ten years development time make you feel so jaundiced.
Regards
Paul |
