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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25803)	9/14/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Area51	Read Replies (2) of 99985

RE: advance/decline divergences: The current advance/decline to Dow divergance has lasted 68 weeks. There have only been two other times this century when the A/D line has been going down for so long, while the Dow has been going up. Once was in 1968, when the divergence lasted 70 weeks. The Dow and S&P 500 then topped out, and declined 36% over the next year and a half, while the Value Line Composite Average plunged 55%. Another time was in 1929, when the divergence lasted 68 weeks. The market then plunged 86% over the next 3 years. Of course as Don would probably tell us, a sample size of two does not allow for a good statistical test of the indicator <g>.

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