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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla Game Investing in the eWorld

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To: Teflon who wrote (319)	9/14/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) of 1817

Now that the past 48 hours is, ummm, in the past, let's do a sort of post mortem on the events. Let's play "what if" with a bunch of rhetorical questions. Forget the pre-announcement. What if the company had not announced the official desire to sell the handset division? What would the stock have done today, tomorrow, next week? What if management had used Wednesday's conference to announce that there would only be a 5% sequential increase, instead of the 40% increase (pro forma) that the company had last quarter? The result would still be above the consensus estimate but wouldn't beat the consenses by as much as in the recent past. How would that information affect the stock? What if the company doesn't sell the handset division for as much as investors think it should get? Do you remember what happened when 3Com bought U. S. Robotics for a price most investors in Robot thought was cheap? I've seen a report that most analysts figure the $1.6 billion handset business is worth only about $1 billion, a very far cry from the numbers people in the Q folder were talking about over the weekend. What if management can't find a buyer before the end of the year? What will that do for the stock? My long-winded point is that there is the potential for a few sharp stones that can pierce through Dorothy's slippers in her walk down Qualcomm's yellow brick road. Don't confuse the stones with the yellow brick road. The road leads to green. Pax. (The only Latin I know. :) --Mike Buckley Last rhetorical question: What if AT&T buys the handset division? Just kidding, but can you imagine the implications?!!!!!!

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