Hello Taikun.
When I hear the term ta or technical analysis I foam at
the mouth. Kindly forgive my fanaticism. Over the years study after study has been done at the universities, investigating the merits of various styles of technical analysis. The largest such study was at Princeton, I remember. None of these studies showed any use for technical analysis. This used to be called chartism. Give a chartist a chart, let him look at the early half, covering up the later half. Ask him to predict the future development. These tests show the impotence of their predictive methods. So why does technical analysis survive? Why do U.S. web sites have horoscopes? Same reason. Ignorance, hope. Also we can describe the past fluently with shoulders, bases, bottoms, tops, so it seems to some that there is a technology there. I still see fortune tellers in Japan, the customers never took any science in high school I presume. Evidence, evidence, evidence. That's the essence of science. The complications of assessing ta is that we have to sort through the data and get a statistical conclusion. Anybody can be right by accident once, even the horoscopes and the fortune tellers. |
