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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Yaacov who wrote (10718)4/4/1997 12:44:00 PM
From: Jack L. Dlugach   of 42771
 
Thanks, Yaacov:

First let me mention Novell so that guy doesn't have
another apopletctic fit (if he didn't die from a stroke):
Novell is holding at 10 1/8 as I write this so here we
are in DOUBLE DIGITS once again and, hopefully, we'll
go up from here because:

I didn't see any specific news on Novell this morning
BUT I did just see some general net news and it says
that networking stocks in the first quarter were MUCH
STRONGER than expectations.

Now the question for Novell is: Can they continue to
service their internet/intranet products and grow the
business with the HOPE that SOMEDAY they can stop giving
away all that stuff for nothing and return a meaningful
profit.

ANSWER: OF COURSE THEY CAN and, despite the doomsayers
and FUD-folks, THEY WILL...

As far as the market psychology goes, I just heard an
analyst on the Business Channel talking about that: what
he says makes a lot of sense for all investors so, hopefully,
even though this isn't about NOVL specifically, this won't
be considered boola sheeta (that's Italian for "chat")--
he says that because we made so much money over the last
couple of years it caused us to have a false euphoria which
he call "THE WEALTH EFFECT."

However, since the DOW got up to almost 7100 and has since
retrenched over 600 points, the PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECT of the
correction (?) has been an erasure of the wealth effect and
a return to a healthy skepticism.

Where the market's headed from here is anybody's guess but the
fact that the bulls have dropped below 50% and the bears are in
the majority usually bodes well for the future. However, the
main bond trader that I follow says long bonds are going to drop
at least another 5 to 7 points: not too bad but also not too good in the short term.

(e-mail coming)
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