Bob,
First, thanks for your sincere post. We all have the same goal of making money, so why can't everyone just get along and discuss things in a sensible manner.
<in fact your #1, at this point will not happen.>
I'm curious why you say this. I personally think that there is a good chance that the NEJM will accept the first clinical results for publication. If they decide not to publish the results, it has been reported that other medical journals are interested.
<Now if the other 2 do not happen, do you agree that the stock will also break out of its trading range on the downside?>
I agree that bad news could cause GUMM to break out of its trading range to the downside. IMO, bad news would include one or more of the following:
1. A decision not to pursue the nicotine gum market within the next 12 months.
2. Failure of the second round of clinical work to demonstrate that Zicam reduces the duration of the common cold.
3. Failure of the second round of clinical work to demonstrate that Zicam is an effective preventative against the common cold. I don't think this would cause the stock to go below 10, but it would probably cause the stock to go down.
4. Complete rejection of the first round of clinical work by the NEJM.
I have previously acknowledged that one has risk in owning GUMM for these reasons. There's no doubt that the stock price has partially discounted higher future sales and profits from nicotine gum, dental gum, and Zicam. If news is disseminated that these expected revenue streams will either be delayed or might not occur at all, the stock price will most likely go down.
Many short sellers here do not acknowledge that they have any risk. GUMM is by no means a slam dunk for short sellers, and based on my considerable due diligence, I think that the odds are in the longs favor. I have a stop in mind in case the stock doesn't do what I think it should do. I sincerely hope that short sellers do the same thing. If things work out like I believe, GumTech's earnings will approach $3.00 to $4.00 within the next two years, and I think the stock will trade to 100+. No hype intended here. I have pro-forma income statements that I would be happy to share with anyone who is interested, and I welcome feedback to my projections. If I end up being right, and stubborn short sellers "sell every up tick", they could literally be broke when all is said and done. I wish that on nobody, even the jerks that have been such a pain in my side here.
Best of luck,
Dan |
