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Technology Stocks : Xicor ?
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To: jeffbas who wrote (2550)9/15/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: jeffbas   of 2920
 
Observation on short term trading of XICO:

I anticipated that around $9 would be a short term top on XICO because that is the price I forgot to sell some at 2 years ago. I chose not to sell this time and gamble I could buy it back 2 points lower. It is because my forecast in the preceding post leads me to believe that we will eventually see perhaps $20 per share.

At that price (on a cost basis of $2), I will realize 14.4 points on an 18 point gain after long term capital gains tax. If I trade at short term capital gains rates, I need 24 points gain to achieve the same result -- 6 points extra gain from trading. I am not good enough to predict that I can do that, or even make any gains from trading, as I am more likely than not to sell it and see something this volatile run another 5 points. I find the analysis of an ultimate target price
much easier to deal with (and admittedly more likely to leave me married to the stock than a trader - which can be far more costly).

For me, a more interesting strategy is to look at dips as an opportunity to buy a bit of extra stock to try to generate some trading gains on top of the stable core position. While today's high volume sell off might well be it, we are seasonally in a weaker time for the market and we might yet see $6, which would be a 40% retracement of the entire move:

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