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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.770+1.1%12:43 PM EST
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To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (3574)9/15/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: BDR  Read Replies (1) of 10293
 
Bob- I agree that GUMM will be a better, or at least safer, short at a later date. If the article has been rejected by the NEJM (and it is beginning to look like that is probably the case), there will never be announcement to that effect. It may very well be published some day but, as they shop it around further and further down the medical publishing food chain, the less scientific merit it will be perceived as having. I expect the most receptive editors and readers will be found at something on the order of Prevention, may I rot in organic, mega-supplemented hell for saying so.

Somebody is selling a lot of nicotine gum and I presume they are making money at it. Even a late comer to this market may be able to sell the stuff and make a little money but I think the margins will be tight. Dental gum? I don't know. I can't see that providing a big boost to the stock price.

The effect on stock price would be in the order given if they occur. #1>#2>#3. Not mentioned is the possibility of significant sales from Zicam, which could occur in the absence of any publication and real revenues and profits would provide the best support for the price of all.

If these events don't occur I don't see a corresponding precipitous drop, just a slow slide down to low single digits. I would give the company time to hype their prospects...excuse me, engage their business plan, and let's revisit them in 3-6 months.
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