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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 691.72-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (26027)9/16/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
Hi,

Needless to say that the market showed its weakness today, however my short-term technicals for the DOW/SPX became oversold. They are not yet CLASS BUYs but could get there in 1-2 days if the market continues down. This forthcoming upswing should be small/weak.

Now the the market has started to pay more attention to the US DOLLAR, it should be noted that the TRADE REPORT will be announced on TUE. Since I use to be in the industry, I checked with some of my friends to see how the ships were doing. I was advised that on the import side the ships were full and very hard to find space. On the export side things were improving slightly, but the increases in exports were mainly in the lower end items like wastepaper/paper products. Higher priced items like machinery were still weak. For reference the value of wastepaper for a 40' CONTAINER is commonly in the $500-1500 range, so that wont do much to help fix the trade deficit. ggggggggggggggg

So I do not expect the TRADE numbers to be that great, which could have another negative effect on the US DOLLAR. Im not aware of what the expected numbers, just that improvements are minimal. How that can get skewed in the report - dont have a clue.

So if I do get a CLASS 1 BUY signal, do not feel that the response to the upside will be that strong, and we could see some significant negativity if the TRADE report is bad.

seeya
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