> Brilliant programmers are very important, vision is what it is
> really about. 600 brilliant programmers killed netscape within
> 2 or 3 quarters. Have no idea about the browsermarketshares at
> this moment, but let's say MSFT won the war!
Part of being a brilliant programmer is vision. I don't want to
start a big argument, but Netscape was killed by a lack of
business plan (and MSFT), not by the programmers. One reason that
I turned down a job there just-pre-IPO (which as it turned out
probably wasn't the smartest financial decision I ever made) is
that I couldn't see how the company was supposed to make
money. So if you want to blame someone for Netscape's failure,
you probably should start at the top.
On the other hand, LE has admitted that Oracle's current strategy
is due in part to the fact that engineers inside his company
developed software that made the strategy feasible before upper
management was aware of it. He was quoted as saying that he
wished that he could say that it was part of some overall plan,
but the work was done before anyone at the top knew about it.
That said, the best engineering work in the world, even driven by
a clear vision, won't go anywhere unless the company can mobilize
behind it, and that requires upper management than can take that
vision and develop it, articulate it, and sell it. As long as LE
is at Oracle I think that they can do this (although I'm not sure
that anyone else in upper management there can do more than hold
Larry's coat), and I don't see signs that anyone at MicroSoft can
do this. But MSFT does have more than half of what it takes to
win, and it's easier to bring a visionary in at the top than to
assimilate the pool of engineering talent, build a good marketing
department, and accumulate more than $20B in cash, so I wouldn't
get complacent about MSFT's current state if I were running ORCL. |
