Charles, Kap, Ten, and any others for whom this is an investment rather than a religion, a few questions:
When do you think Athlon mobos supporting AGP4x will be available? I ask because I think the new Nvidia GeForce graphics chip is going to be a driver for gamer purchasing decisions this Xmas as well as a powerful avdertising point for system ads (the specs are awesome compared to the current generation.) VIAs chipset for Athlon supports 4x.
With pretty certain CUmine 733 MHz selling in Oct. and assuming the rumoured 700 MHz Athlon is selling in quant then, Intel will be able to reclaim (by a nose) the MHz crown for the Xmas season, while the benchmarks will still probably favor Athlon by 5-15%. In the public's mind, ties go to the incumbent champ. In that situation, do you think there will be sufficient demand for Athlon 700s (for whatever reason, anti-Intel sentiment, desire for higher FPU perf, higher cost or slower perf of Intel sys due to Rambus, whatever) to allow AMD to sell 1M Aths at $300 asps?
Do you think the reported Rambus problems are something Intel thinks will be fixed by CUmine intro, or that they are hoping simply to bull the change through problems and all? (Blow the horn on the high mem MHz and ignore the probs?) Or is it possible they can come up with a last-minute way to avoid Rambus and still ship CUmine?
Assuming a neck-and-neck MHz race through the end of the year, do you think AMD can sell enough Aths for enough asp to reach profitability by early 2000?
I am long AMD at 17 7/16s (having sold INTC at 67 to shift) because the upside/downside potential is much greater, however, I don't think AMD has a long window here. I don't assume that Intel is incapable of getting it in gear, so for my purposes, I assume Willamette will arrive in summer 2000 and will be faster than the current Ath design. Thus to expand my current bet I must feel confident that AMD can reach profitability and capture significant public mindshare as an equally good high-perf supplier by spring. Do you think they can meet that challenge? I would include the assumption that Process Boy is correct and CUmine will stay close in the MHz race.
Having read your posts for a month or so, I know what your inclinations and piecemeal evaluations are, and respect the effort you all have put into your analysis, so I would very much like to see your thoughts on these questions.
There is no doubt that AMD presents a compelling risk/reward picture given its net asset value and valuation relative to INTCs, however, the reward side of the analysis depends on its ability to actually show promise of capturing some of INTCs monopoly profits (the sum of which will certainly decrease if AMD makes it a real horse race.)
Awaiting your thoughts,
Vince |
