Vince,
<When do you think Athlon mobos supporting AGP4x will be available? >
My estimate is that Athlon/VIA/AGP4x systems will become available in early Q1, 2000.
<With pretty certain CUmine 733 MHz selling in Oct. and assuming the rumoured 700 MHz Athlon is selling in quant then, Intel will be able to reclaim (by a nose) the MHz crown for the Xmas season, while the benchmarks will still probably favor Athlon by 5-15%. In the public's mind, ties go to the incumbent champ. In that situation, do you think there will be sufficient demand for Athlon 700s (for whatever reason, anti-Intel sentiment, desire for higher FPU perf, higher cost or slower perf of Intel sys due to Rambus, whatever) to allow AMD to sell 1M Aths at $300 asps?>
I think that you outlined a conservative scenario here. Several upside surprises are possible: 1. We may see Athlon 750s for sale this Xmas season; 2. The Athlon performance advantage over CuMine/DRDRAM at the same clock speed may stay similar to today's PIII/PC100, because 820/DRDRAM133 appears to be slower than 440BX/PC100; 3. DRDRAM shortages can severely affect the availability of the Camino systems. 4. DRDRAM costs will make the Camino systems more expensive than comparably equipped (but faster) Athlon systems.
<Do you think the reported Rambus problems are something Intel thinks will be fixed by CUmine intro, or that they are hoping simply to bull the change through problems and all? (Blow the horn on the high mem MHz and ignore the probs?) Or is it possible they can come up with a last-minute way to avoid Rambus and still ship CUmine?>
Just wait for major PC mags publish CuMine/Rambust benchmarks under-performing cheaper Athlon systems.
<Assuming a neck-and-neck MHz race through the end of the year, do you think AMD can sell enough Aths for enough asp to reach profitability by early 2000?>
I think AMD will sell all Athlons they make in Q4. It could be anything between 800K and 1.5M units. I project $.80 loss in Q3, $.10 profit in Q4 and $.30 profit in Q1.
<I am long AMD at 17 7/16s (having sold INTC at 67 to shift) because the upside/downside potential is much greater, however, I don't think AMD has a long window here. I don't assume that Intel is incapable of getting it in gear, so for my purposes, I assume Willamette will arrive in summer 2000 and will be faster than the current Ath design.>
The "window of opportunity" may turn out to be MUCH longer than most people are predicting now.
As you can see I have a very bullish view of AMD stock prospects and I put my money where my mouth is.
Kap |
