Friday, September 17, 1999
Market Basics: Dollar To Remain Weak Through October
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The dollar will trade in a 100-110 yen range through the end of October, though the bias is on a weak dollar, Hideki Yomo at Tokai Bank predicts.
The U.S. currency will rebound sharply if the U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities join forces in propping it up, but the chance of such coordinated market intervention taking place is slim, unless the dollar plunges against the euro, he asserts.
Under such circumstances, the Bank of Japan will be forced to intervene in the market alone, but its impact will be limited, he adds.
Yomo sees supply-demand conditions favoring the Japanese currency. Japanese institutional investors have been selling dollar-denominated assets and bringing back the proceeds. Exporters, who have generally failed to sell dollars forward due to the rapid depreciation of the U.S. currency, have been taking the temporary dollar strength as opportunities to sell the currency, he points out.
Nonetheless, he contends, the possibility of the dollar falling below 100 yen is remote for now because a stock market decline due to the yen's appreciation will short-circuit the economy, which in turn will pressure the Japanese currency.
(The Nikkei Financial Daily Friday edition)
|
