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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
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To: Q. who wrote (15)4/4/1997 8:06:00 PM
From: Mat Miller   of 167
 
John,

Interesting data. As you point out it worked well in 1987, 1996 but not in 1992, although it maybe didn't hurt too much. Mostly in terms of commission and taxes more so than missing the bull move. And maybe now? The jury is out on this until your May target, as to whether the market will be higher or lower than your jumping out spot.

The only other 'spot' that needs to be analysed is mid-90. While the 7/27/90 was the first week above 50% bullish (at 52%), the week before of 40% and after of 28%, gives a 'false negative'. Thus, it doesn't get you out of the small bear (16%) in the second half of 1990.

But overall, something to think about of whether to make that buy or sell.

Mat
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