Top 10 B2B, how to get rich from the GS-article.
As far as I can remember I have never seen a company like
Goldman & Sachs predicting a new market from the size of
1.500.000.000.000,- dollars. And because they tipped Oracle
and Sap as the big winners these guys seems to understand
this market. Oracle is still my favorite, not only because
SAP is a german company. (I'm not referring to the
war, I'm refering to the Soccer World Cup-final in 1974
which we lost we 2-1 and is still costing me a good sleep
every once in a while.)
Anyhow, now that we know their we be another "hurricane"
(with all respect for the damage the real one is doing,
I'm not kidding about it) I decided to base my portofolio
from now on, on that coming market.
I'm also an investor, not a trader. I like and look for
fundamentals.
I came up with the following list, and would appreciate
some feedback.
I don't like the start-ups and one-product companies.
Horizon is too impredictable. A good product
is one thing, execution (and making profit) is another
thing. So I prefer the stocks with less downside risk.
To keep it simple, Amazon did great last few years and
the more succes they have, the more cash they are burning.
This will also happen to the "winners" in the B2B-market.
So, no Ariba, no Commerce One etc.
Well, here's my personal top 10
1. Oracle, monopoly in the (growing) database-market,
available in all the important software-areas like
CRM, ERP, SCM, etc. And of course LE.
2. US Web!! Nr.1 in strategic consultancy.
3. SAP (sleeping Giant that invested big in e-business in
the last 3 years. Lots of ERP-knowledge, worldwide customer
base. And the Goldman Sachs-analysis)
4. Compaq, server-farms to run the huge, big and mission-
critical databases in the future. (Remember Tandem & Digital).
5. Cisco
6. IBM
7. Sun (although I never have a clear of what these guys are
doing, too much products, too little mainstream)
8. Dell, a bit tricky, Dell's succes the last decade was based
on direct selling of hardware (first PC's, then servers, then
workstations etc.) Now they are diversifying (Free Internet
Service Provider, the new E-Bay with MSFT etc.
Diversifying is a risky strategy with very little chance of
succes (about 10%).
On the plus, Michael Dell has brains.
9. EMC
10. ????
So,
1. Oracle
2. Us WEB
3. SAP
4. Compaq
5. Cisco
6. IBM
7. Sun
8. Dell
9. EMC
10. ???
341. Microsoft
So far I own the top-3. The rest I will buy "on the dip".
Compaq has a strong bottom at low 20, so less risk to the
downside.
Any comments, consider it a beta-version of the B2B-porto.
Paul
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