I take a look at the six month chart of Ancor and right now I am one happy geek. Looking forward to the next 6 months, and anticipating the following 6 months. Then, with Sun expecting bulk Storage sales to really pick up in 2001 going into '02 & '03 when they plan total world domination brick-by-brick, $100M is a cakewalk. True, the exercise of warrants won't help the PE over the stretch, but the sales will perform continual wonders for the cash flow and P/S ratio.
Near term though, another earnings season looms. $3M gone from BA. One last vestigial losing quarter before the new Ancor takes hold? Q3 estimates are $-0.12 - $-0.10, mean = $-0.11. Q4 estimates come in at last Q's range $-0.07 - $-0.05, mean = $-0.06. These estimates haven't changed in over 30 days. Did Kinnard's rrecent upgrade recite any revisions in earnings estimates? Does anyone else think that these estimates may be a tad conservative? Does anyone think they have a clearer picture than the 5 analysts?
What can we expect to be prepared for this Q? IMO, Ancor may very well come in @ $-0.11 with ramping expenses prior to revenue accretion. With the offering behind them and cash in hand, I would then expect aggressive forwards in the CC and perhaps another accompanying announcement (deal, alliance, product, who knows).
Last Q's $-0.07 didn't affect the stock price much despite the pre-earnings hype and subdued CC. The subsequent dive 2 weeks later was tied to PCX options opening trading on 8/3 in some arcane fashion beyond my fathoming. But we had the offering to look forward to then. And now it looks like a possible recovery from the concerted efforts of some professional shorts (PJ?) via Greenberg and the WSJ (no, not a conspiracy theory, those guys don't dig up that kind of stuff on their own, they get it handed to them). So much for this Q.
Let's hope this Q's CC will yield something else for the stock price to look forward to next Q and beyond. Would be nice to gaze upon an upwardly stable chart every six months, and not purely for the sublime aesthetics of resurrrection.
Douglas |
