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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 7.030+1.7%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2209)9/18/1999 8:00:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (3) of 34857
 

TDMA can't support the kind of mobile data stuff that CDMA and GSM can. That's probably one reason why AT&T is so intent on rolling out TDMA/GSM dualmode phones - they could use the GSM networks for data support. The problem with CDMA internet phones is the demand. The early smartphone sales have shown an interesting pattern - practically every buyer is an upgrader. So the market is totally dependent on the number of current subscribers.

GSM has 200 million subs - CDMA has less than one tenth of that outside of Korea and Japan. It's impossible for the Western companies to sell handsets to Korea and Japan profitably. Those countries remain effectively walled off to western manufacturers, despite of small token presence by Motorola and Nokia.

Nokia is probably topping 100 million units next year. Targeting the current Western CDMA phone market with internet models makes no sense economically right now. It's going to take some time. However, if just 3% of GSM subscribers upgrade to 7110, that's an instant 6 million unit market for a model that starts retailing around 700 dollars. If this tactic pans out, it's a gusher of moolah (to use Texan terminology). It's pretty risky to become the first WAP manufacturer, though - the demand is impossible to predict.

Tero
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