Hey dennis,
I had to add my few cents here on the subject. I have watched you and others use Carpino, Favors and I dont recall Belkin before.. but none of them have been accurate enough to me that I would trade on their signals alone. Especially Carpino. There isnt anyone that calls this market correctly, I follow most prognosticators on here (Sew etc) and during this bull run there isnt anyone that is right enough of the time to completely change ones investing strategy due to a persons opinion. True that in July of last that we did fall, but did we fall to the extent that they called for?
It seems interesting to me that I read about Favors or see him on CNBC saying somthing, then if it doesnt happen, everyone forgets and waits for the next call.
To me the question is as always "what is going to be the catalyst" to drive this correction. Last year it was Asia. It isnt going to be Asia this year (IMO) Europe isnt at lofty levels, either is Latin America. We have the Fed over-doing their policy watching very very closely to make sure inflation stays in check. So what drives us lower? There are too many people invested in the market to see a prolonged drop. Peoples 401k monies, foreign monies, general investing, IRA's etc are pouring in to the market.
I have said for sometime that until somthing BETTER comes along that either provides safety at reasonable return, or just reasonable return compared to the markets that we keep going higher. There isnt that much to it.. As long as the cash is there and the environment is stable we stay within 10% of where we are.
I would like to hear from anyone on SI what is going to be the catalyst to make us drop 30%. I dont care if all the prognosticators say, there has to be a trigger/reason. 5-10%, ok.. 30%, that sounds like Ralph Acompora....
It never fails dennis, just when you think the market is going to fall flat (that day that we were at 1260 on the S&P last month) there will be someone there to get the market out of a jam.. G/S or whomever..
FWIW |
