Fair enough -- indeed, I hadn't looked at SOX et al for comparisons, for example.
My only beef is with #5, and it's not a big one: after the books closed a quarter or so ago, Kipp made the rounds and nudged and winked that they would have good earnings, and they did, and the stock went on a rampage. The latest episode is the flip side, of course: Kipp seems to be nudging and winking that the quarter will be so-so, which is why I'm thinking that post-earnings / post-9/30 will be at least a short-term dumperoo.
Which brings us to my latest hare-brained graph interpretation: Does it seem that MU's quarterly action can be well described in retrospect simply by noting its price at the beginning and the end of the calendar quarter? This quarter-long rampage began precisely at the end of last quarter (6/29 I believe), as have a few in the past (e.g., Oct-Dec 1998, and note as well the beyond-insane boost that began on the first day of trading in 1999).
(This too would not be unique to MU.)
We would need to be above 87 for 20 out of 30 trading days to accomplish The Scenario, which suggests at least a trading range (previous example: Jul-Sep 1998). (Note that there are only 62 trading days in the next quarter.) So a quarter-long dumperoo starting 10/1 is the least likely possibility to me. Given the bull traps and buy-stop-running I've perceived over the past few days (including yesterday), a short but looks-like-the-end-of-the-world dump is in order to make sure everybody gives up before trapping the bears just as nastily before rocketing back up to 87 to start the End Game. |
